Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0159909

Cited by 373 publications

(421 citation statements)

References 72 publications

(99 reference statements)

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“…As during past epochs, they may act as safe havens of genetic diversity over the forthcoming decades and centuries of drastic change across the landscape, which is consistent with our finding across the full set of study sites that recent environmental shifts and isolation were negatively associated with persistence. As such, they are key targets with potential for management action [1,44,45], particularly while more longterm, sustainable climate change adaptation strategies are developed. Our study shows that in-depth modeling paired with rigorous fieldwork can identify functioning climate change refugia for conservation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Attention on climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources [1], has increased as scientists attempt to explain anomalies in the expected patterns of population responses to climate change [2][3][4][5]. Although managing climate change refugia is frequently identified as a key climate change adaptation strategy [1,6], spatially explicit predictions of refugia and their effects on biodiversity are rare [5,7,8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although managing climate change refugia is frequently identified as a key climate change adaptation strategy [1,6], spatially explicit predictions of refugia and their effects on biodiversity are rare [5,7,8]. Most studies skip the key step of using independent data to evaluate whether these hypothesized refugia increase species persistence (Although see [9,10]), which is necessary to confirm that investing limited resources into refugia is warranted [1].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change refugia and habitat connectivity promote species persistence

Morelli

Maher

Lim

et al. 2017

Clim Chang Responses

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Background: Climate change refugia, areas buffered from climate change relative to their surroundings, are of increasing interest as natural resource managers seek to prioritize climate adaptation actions. However, evidence that refugia buffer the effects of anthropogenic climate change is largely missing. Methods: Focusing on the climate-sensitive Belding's ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi), we predicted that highly connected Sierra Nevada meadows that had warmed less or shown less precipitation change over the last century would have greater population persistence, as measured by short-term occupancy, fewer extirpations over the twentieth century, and long-term persistence measured through genetic diversity. Results: Across California, U. beldingi were more likely to persist over the last century in meadows with high connectivity that were defined as refugial based on a suite of temperature and precipitation factors. In Yosemite National Park, highly connected refugial meadows were more likely to be occupied by U. beldingi. More broadly, populations inhabiting Sierra Nevada meadows with colder mean winter temperatures had higher values of allelic richness at microsatellite loci, consistent with higher population persistence in temperature-buffered sites. Furthermore, both allelic richness and gene flow were higher in meadows that had higher landscape connectivity, indicating the importance of metapopulation processes. Conversely, anthropogenic refugia, sites where populations appeared to persist due to food or water supplementation, had lower connectivity, genetic diversity, and gene flow, and thus might act as ecological traps. This study provides evidence that validates the climate change refugia concept in a contemporary context and illustrates how to integrate field observations and genetic analyses to test the effectiveness of climate change refugia and connectivity. Conclusions: Climate change refugia will be important for conserving populations as well as genetic diversity and evolutionary potential. Our study shows that in-depth modeling paired with rigorous fieldwork can identify functioning climate change refugia for conservation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change refugia and habitat connectivity promote species persistence

Morelli

Maher

Lim

et al. 2017

Clim Chang Responses

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“…Rhodopes have better perspectives for long-term survival in regard to the advance of the global climate changes and warming. They are located at deep and steep gorges which can partly decouple the local climatic conditions from the regional circulation patterns and can serve as climate changes refugia as a recent study reveals [35]. Additionally at Buynovsko and Derinkouk gorge the habitats resemble the ones from the northern temperate and boreal zones of Europe where this orchid has the largest and most numerous distribution and therefore are most favorable for the species survival regarding its biology and environmental requirements.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ophrys insectifera L.—Update of the Status of a Critically Endangered Orchid in Bulgaria

Popatanasov¹

2018

JLS

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Aim: Ophrys insectifera L. due to its peculiar biology and environmental requirements is among the most threatened and endangered vascular plants in Bulgaria. On the territory of Bulgaria the species fulfills the IUCN criteria for critically endangered [CR C2a(i); D] and is included also in the Red Data Book of Republic Bulgaria and Biodiversity Act. The present study aimed to explore and evaluate the status of its populations and their threats. Materials and methods: Exploration and monitoring of the populations of the critically endangered orchid O. insectifera in Bulgaria was done from 2012 till 2017. The shoot count and some morphometric parameters were recorded for evaluation of their distribution and population dynamics. Results and discussion: At one location Ophrys insectifera can be considered extinct. However two new locations were found so the total number of known locations is increased. Approximately over 50% of the occupied territories fall outside protected sites and many of the habitats are endangered by anthropogenic or other factors. At all of the known locations there are less than 50 shoots per place. These facts put a high stress on the perspectives of their populations' survival in Bulgaria.

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“…Unlike macrorefugia (or simply 'refugia'), which are large areas of suitable habitat for many species during a time of widespread climate-driven range contractions, microrefugia are isolated sites of benign microclimates that allow species persistence within a broad region of formerly suitable habitat (Rull, 2009). Microrefugia exist because of buffering processes that decouple the site's microclimate from regional climate (Dobrowski, 2011;Morelli et al, 2016). Because microrefugia allow in situ persistence within the species' former range, they facilitate species responses to climate change via distribution dynamics, reducing the migration speeds necessary to track climatically suitable habitat (Corlett and Westcott, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting microrefugia in semi-arid landscapes from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics

Andrew

Warrener

2017

Remote Sensing of Environment

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(in press). Detecting microrefugia in semi-arid landscapes from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics. Remote Sensing of Environment. Accepted 4 August 2017. DOI:https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.08.005 Disclaimer:The PDF document is a copy of the final version of this manuscript that was subsequently accepted by the journal for publication. The paper has been through peer review, but it has not been subject to any additional copy-editing or journal specific formatting (so will look different from the final version of record, which may be accessed following the DOI above depending on your access situation). 2 AbstractMicrorefugia are sites with stable, high quality habitat within landscapes characterized by dynamic environmental conditions driven by climate variability or ecological disturbances. There is considerable interest in the potential of microrefugia to provide climate change resilience to landscapes and to biodiversity conservation. Although attractive conceptually, there is yet little guidance on how to identify climate change microrefugia in order to study and protect them, and the data required to do so are often lacking. This study demonstrates how time series remote sensing, using all available Landsat images of a study area, can be used to directly detect microrefugia maintained by water subsidies in a semi-arid landscape in southwest Western Australia.Microrefugia were identified as pixels with abundant vegetation and consistent vegetation dynamics between wet and dry years. At every pixel, a harmonic model was fit to the intra-annual time series of vegetation index values compiled from the wettest years in the Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) archive. This model was then used to predict the phenological cycle of the driest years at that pixel. Candidate microrefugia were defined to be those pixels with (1) high vegetation activity in dry years and (2) highly predictable phenologies that are consistent regardless of the weather conditions experienced in a given year. Spatial relationships between candidate microrefugia and landscape features associated with elevated moisture availability (thought to drive climate microrefugia in these semi-arid landscapes) were assessed. The candidate microrefugia show great promise. Evaluations against high-resolution imagery reveal that candidate microrefugia most likely buffer against drought, although refugia from other disturbances, especially fire, were also detected. In contrast, spatial proxies of the physical features expected to maintain microrefugia failed to adequately represent the distribution of microrefugia across the landscape, likely due to data quality and the heterogeneity of microrefugia. Direct detection of microrefugia with Earth observation data is a promising solution in data limited regions. Landsat time series analyses are well suited to this application as they can characterize both the habitat quality and stability aspects of microrefugia.

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Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

Cited by 373 publications

References 72 publications

Climate change refugia and habitat connectivity promote species persistence

Climate change refugia and habitat connectivity promote species persistence

Ophrys insectifera L.—Update of the Status of a Critically Endangered Orchid in Bulgaria

Detecting microrefugia in semi-arid landscapes from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics

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