Phenology and productivity in a montane bird assemblage: Trends and responses to elevation and climate variation

Saracco, James F.; Siegel, Rodney B.; Helton, Lauren; Stock, Sarah; DeSante, David F.

doi:10.1111/gcb.14538

Cited by 27 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Although we found no evidence of winter drought carry‐over effects on productivity, we did find population‐specific effects of spring temperature on productivity: Productivity of populations in the montane (sne) and northerly (pnw) regions increased with increasing spring temperature. This finding is consistent with results of multi‐species productivity models applied to MAPS data within the sne region (Saracco et al, ). Productivity was an important contributor to annual variation in population change.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…We hypothesized that F I G U R E 1 Adult male Wilson's warbler in California's Sierra Nevada. Photography credit: Gabriel Gonzalez breeding productivity would depend on drought conditions on the wintering grounds (a carry-over effect) and on spring temperature (Saracco, Siegel, Helton, Stock, & DeSante, 2019;Socolar, Epanchin, Beissinger, & Tingley, 2017) and that adult survival would depend on winter drought and wind conditions during spring migration (Drake, Rock, Quinlan, Martin, & Green, 2014;Huang, Bishop, McKibbin, Drake, & Green, 2017;LaManna, George, Saracco, Nott, & DeSante, 2012). We used transient life table response experiments (LTREs) to decompose variation in population growth rates among vital rate and demographic structure components and to examine how these demographic contributions depended on climate covariates (Koons, Arnold, & Schaub, 2017;Koons, Iles, Schaub, & Caswell, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating broad‐scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird

Saracco

Rubenstein

2020

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate variation and trends affect species distribution and abundance across large spatial extents. However, most studies that predict species response to climate are implemented at small spatial scales or are based on occurrence‐environment relationships that lack mechanistic detail. Here, we develop an integrated population model (IPM) for multi‐site count and capture‐recapture data for a declining migratory songbird, Wilson's warbler (Cardellina pusilla), in three genetically distinct breeding populations in western North America. We include climate covariates of vital rates, including spring temperatures on the breeding grounds, drought on the wintering range in northwest Mexico, and wind conditions during spring migration. Spring temperatures were positively related to productivity in Sierra Nevada and Pacific Northwest genetic groups, and annual changes in productivity were important predictors of changes in growth rate in these populations. Drought condition on the wintering grounds was a strong predictor of adult survival for coastal California and Sierra Nevada populations; however, adult survival played a relatively minor role in explaining annual variation in population change. A latent parameter representing a mixture of first‐year survival and immigration was the largest contributor to variation in population change; however, this parameter was estimated imprecisely, and its importance likely reflects, in part, differences in spatio‐temporal distribution of samples between count and capture‐recapture data sets. Our modeling approach represents a novel and flexible framework for linking broad‐scale multi‐site monitoring data sets. Our results highlight both the potential of the approach for extension to additional species and systems, as well as needs for additional data and/or model development.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating broad‐scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird

Saracco

Rubenstein

2020

Ecology and Evolution

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“…Studying breeding phenology and productivity in Yosemite National Park from 1993 to 2017, Saracco et al (2019) similarly found that birds benefited from warmer and drier spring conditions. Studying breeding phenology and productivity in Yosemite National Park from 1993 to 2017, Saracco et al (2019) similarly found that birds benefited from warmer and drier spring conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Occupancy rates of most but not all landbirds increased with spring temperature and decreased with spring precipitation. Studying breeding phenology and productivity in Yosemite National Park from 1993 to 2017, Saracco et al (2019) similarly found that birds benefited from warmer and drier spring conditions. Overall bird abundance and diversity could increase if average springtime temperature increases throughout the Rocky Mountains.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landbird trends in protected areas using time‐to‐event occupancy models

et al. 2019

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Global populations of wildlife are affected by human activity, land cover change, and climate change. Long-term monitoring programs across large spatial scales are required to understand how these and other factors affect wildlife populations. Occupancy models are frequently used to monitor changes in species distribution while accounting for imperfect detection. Occupancy surveys can be expensive because they typically require multiple surveys to estimate the probability of detection. Time-to-detection models provide a promising approach for estimating occupancy because they require just one visit; however, few studies have tested or applied these models to wildlife data. We ran a simulation study to assess biases of time-to-event occupancy models for standardized avian point-count surveys and then applied the models to 10 yr of data. Time to first detection occupancy models had minimal bias and almost nominal coverage for species with a mean time to first detection <8 min on surveys with 10 min of sampling. Biases and root mean squared error increased with increasing time to first detection. We applied a single species, multiyear occupancy model to 34,665 detections of 77 landbird species collected across 500 km of latitude in five protected areas along the Rocky Mountains. Models from 64 species converged and had mean times to first detection <8 min. Average time to first detections was 3.2 min, which reflected a cumulative probability of detection of 0.96. Occupancy rates increased, decreased, and remained unchanged for 53%, 9%, and 38% of species, respectively. Overall, occupancy rates increased in 2015 and 2016 for short-and long-distance migrants and decreased slightly for winter residents. Average decadal temperature and precipitation were important predictors for almost half of the species, while annual changes in spring temperature and precipitation affected 23% of species. Our studies demonstrate that time to first event occupancy models provide an efficient method for monitoring changes in distribution so long as encounter rates are much shorter than the survey duration. Our stable to increasing trends and strong responses to spring temperature and precipitation highlight the value of long-term monitoring for understanding how changing climatic conditions affect wildlife.

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“…In all cases, reproduction and survival are likely to be affected differently by the variation in environmental conditions in each season. For example, warmer springs and summers have been shown to positively influence reproduction in common alpine birds (Meller, Piha, Vähätalo, & Lehikoinen, ; Saracco, Desante, Siegel, Helton, & Stock, ), but to negatively impact the survival of common birds in a wider temperate context (Pearce‐Higgins, Eglington, Martay, & Chamberlain, ). The impact of some environmental conditions can also be delayed to “critical periods” in the seasonal cycle through carry‐over effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warm temperatures during cold season can negatively affect adult survival in an alpine bird

Chiffard

Delestrade

Yoccoz

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate seasonality is a predominant constraint on the lifecycles of species in alpine and polar biomes. Assessing the response of these species to climate change thus requires taking into account seasonal constraints on populations. However, interactions between seasonality, weather fluctuations, and population parameters remain poorly explored as they require long‐term studies with high sampling frequency. This study investigated the influence of environmental covariates on the demography of a corvid species, the alpine chough Pyrrhocorax graculus, in the highly seasonal environment of the Mont Blanc region. In two steps, we estimated: (1) the seasonal survival of categories of individuals based on their age, sex, etc., (2) the effect of environmental covariates on seasonal survival. We hypothesized that the cold season—and more specifically, the end of the cold season (spring)—would be a critical period for individuals, and we expected that weather and individual covariates would influence survival variation during critical periods. We found that while spring was a critical season for adult female survival, it was not for males. This is likely because females are dominated by males at feeding sites during snowy seasons (winter and spring), and additionally must invest energy in egg production. When conditions were not favorable, which seemed to happen when the cold season was warmer than usual, females probably reached their physiological limits. Surprisingly, adult survival was higher at the beginning of the cold season than in summer, which may result from adaptation to harsh weather in alpine and polar vertebrates. This hypothesis could be confirmed by testing it with larger sets of populations. This first seasonal analysis of individual survival over the full life cycle in a sedentary alpine bird shows that including seasonality in demographic investigations is crucial to better understand the potential impacts of climate change on cold ecosystems.

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Phenology and productivity in a montane bird assemblage: Trends and responses to elevation and climate variation

Cited by 27 publications

References 62 publications

Integrating broad‐scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird

Integrating broad‐scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird

Landbird trends in protected areas using time‐to‐event occupancy models

Warm temperatures during cold season can negatively affect adult survival in an alpine bird

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