Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed agespecific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. FindingsThe global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66-2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17-2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5-137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0-146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2-144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in...

Background Mental disorders are among the leading causes of non-fatal disease burden in India, but a systematic understanding of their prevalence, disease burden, and risk factors is not readily available for each state of India. In this report, we describe the prevalence and disease burden of each mental disorder for the states of India, from 1990 to 2017. Methods We used all accessible data from multiple sources to estimate the prevalence of mental disorders, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by these disorders for all the states of India from 1990 to 2017, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We assessed the heterogeneity and time trends of mental disorders across the states of India. We grouped states on the basis of their Socio-demographic Index (SDI), which is a composite measure of per-capita income, mean education, and fertility rate in women younger than 25 years. We also assessed the association of major mental disorders with suicide deaths. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the point estimates. Findings In 2017, 197•3 million (95% UI 178•4-216•4) people had mental disorders in India, including 45•7 million (42•4-49•8) with depressive disorders and 44•9 million (41•2-48•9) with anxiety disorders. We found a significant, but modest, correlation between the prevalence of depressive disorders and suicide death rate at the state level for females (r²=0•33, p=0•0009) and males (r²=0•19, p=0•015). The contribution of mental disorders to the total DALYs in India increased from 2•5% (2•0-3•1) in 1990 to 4•7% (3•7-5•6) in 2017. In 2017, depressive disorders contributed the most to the total mental disorders DALYs (33•8%, 29•5-38•5), followed by anxiety disorders (19•0%, 15•9-22•4), idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (IDID; 10•8%, 6•3-15•9), schizophrenia (9•8%, 7•7-12•4), bipolar disorder (6•9%, 4•9-9•6), conduct disorder (5•9%, 4•0-8•1), autism spectrum disorders (3•2%, 2•7-3•8), eating disorders (2•2%, 1•7-2•8), and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD; 0•3%, 0•2-0•5); other mental disorders comprised 8•0% (6•1-10•1) of DALYs. Almost all (>99•9%) of these DALYs were made up of YLDs. The DALY rate point estimates of mental disorders with onset predominantly in childhood and adolescence (IDID, conduct disorder, autism spectrum disorders, and ADHD) were higher in low SDI states than in middle SDI and high SDI states in 2017, whereas the trend was reversed for mental disorders that manifest predominantly during adulthood. Although the prevalence of mental disorders with onset in childhood and adolescence decreased in India from 1990 to 2017, with a stronger decrease in high SDI and middle SDI states than in low SDI states, the prevalence of mental disorders that manifest predominantly during adulthood increased during this period. Interpretation One in seven Indians were affected by mental disorders of varying severity in 2017. The proportional contribution of mental disorders to the t...

Summary Background Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05–10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27–6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53–4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06–2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71–0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27–1·58) deaths per 1...

Background India has made substantial progress in improving child survival over the past few decades, but a comprehensive understanding of child mortality trends at disaggregated geographical levels is not available. We present a detailed analysis of subnational trends of child mortality to inform efforts aimed at meeting the India National Health Policy (NHP) and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for child mortality. MethodsWe assessed the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) from 2000 to 2017 in 5 × 5 km grids across India, and for the districts and states of India, using all accessible data from various sources including surveys with subnational geographical information. The 31 states and groups of union territories were categorised into three groups using their Socio-demographic Index (SDI) level, calculated as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study on the basis of per-capita income, mean education, and total fertility rate in women younger than 25 years. Inequality between districts within the states was assessed using the coefficient of variation. We projected U5MR and NMR for the states and districts up to 2025 and 2030 on the basis of the trends from 2000 to 2017 and compared these projections with the NHP 2025 and SDG 2030 targets for U5MR (23 deaths and 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively) and NMR (16 deaths and 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively). We assessed the causes of child death and the contribution of risk factors to child deaths at the state level. Findings U5MR in India decreased from 83•1 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 76•7-90•1) in 2000 to 42•4 (36•5-50•0) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, and NMR from 38•0 (34•2-41•6) to 23•5 (20•1-27•8) per 1000 livebirths. U5MR varied 5•7 times between the states of India and 10•5 times between the 723 districts of India in 2017, whereas NMR varied 4•5 times and 8•0 times, respectively. In the low SDI states, 275 (88%) districts had a U5MR of 40 or more per 1000 livebirths and 291 (93%) districts had an NMR of 20 or more per 1000 livebirths in 2017. The annual rate of change from 2010 to 2017 varied among the districts from a 9•02% (95% UI 6•30-11•63) reduction to no significant change for U5MR and from an 8•05% (95% UI 5•34-10•74) reduction to no significant change for NMR. Inequality between districts within the states increased from 2000 to 2017 in 23 of the 31 states for U5MR and in 24 states for NMR, with the largest increases in Odisha and Assam among the low SDI states. If the trends observed up to 2017 were to continue, India would meet the SDG 2030 U5MR target but not the SDG 2030 NMR target or either of the NHP 2025 targets. To reach the SDG 2030 targets individually, 246 (34%) districts for U5MR and 430 (59%) districts for NMR would need a higher rate of improvement than they had up to 2017. For all major causes of under-5 death in India, the death rate decreased between 2000 and 2017, with the highest decline for infectious diseases, intermediate decline for neona...

Hemicrania continua (HC) is an indomethacin-responsive primary headache disorder which is currently classified under the heading of trigeminal autonomic cephalalgias (TACs). It is a highly misdiagnosed and underreported primary headache. The pooled mean delay of diagnosis of HC is 8.0 ± 7.2 years. It is not rare. We noted more than 1000 cases in the literature. It represents 1.7% of total headache patients attending headache or neurology clinic. Just like other TACs, it is characterized by strictly unilateral pain in the trigeminal distribution, cranial autonomic features in the same area and agitation during exacerbations/attacks. It is different from other TACs in one aspect. While all other TACs are episodic, HC patients have continuous headaches with superimposed severe exacerbations. The central feature of HC is continuous background headache. However, the patients may be worried only for superimposed exacerbations. Focusing only on exacerbations and ignoring continuous background headache are the most important factors for the misdiagnosis of HC. A large number of patients may have migrainous features during exacerbation phase. Up to 70% patients may fulfill the diagnostic criteria for migraine during exacerbations. Besides migraine, its exacerbations can mimic a large number of other primary and secondary headaches. The other specific feature of HC is a remarkable response to indomethacin. However, a large number of patients develop side effects because of the long-term use of indomethacin. A few other medications may also be effective in a subset of patients with HC. Various surgical interventions have been suggested for patients who are intolerant to indomethacin. Several aspects of HC are still not defined. There is a great heterogeneity in types of patients or articles on the HC in the literature. Diagnostic criteria have been modified several times over the years. The current diagnostic criteria are too restrictive in some aspects. We suggest a more accommodating type of criteria for the appendix of International Classification of Headache Disorder (ICHD).