Compulsory school-dropout is a serious problem affecting not only the education systems, but also the developmental progress of any country as a whole. Identifying the risk of dropping out, and characterizing its main determinants, could help the decision-makers to draw eradicating policies for this persisting problem and reducing its social and economic negativities over time. Based on a substantially imbalanced Egyptian survey dataset, this paper aims to develop a Logistic classifier capable of early predicting students at-risk of dropping out. Training any classifier with an imbalanced dataset, usually weaken its performance especially when it comes to false negative classification. Due to this fact, an extensive comparative analysis is conducted to investigate a variety of resampling techniques. More specifically, based on eight under-sampling techniques and four over-sampling ones, and their mutually exclusive mixed pairs, forty-five resampling experiments on the dataset are conducted to build the best possible Logistic classifier. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an explicit predictive model for school dropouts in Egypt which could be employed for identifying vulnerable students who are continuously feeding this chronic problem. The key factors of vulnerability the suggested classifier identified are student chronic diseases, co-educational, parents' illiteracy, educational performance, and teacher caring. These factors are matching with those found by many of the research previously conducted in similar countries. Accordingly, educational authorities could confidently monitor these factors and tailor suitable actions for early intervention.
Purpose Viable system model (VSM) is a powerful tool mainly used to describe, solve and control systems’ complex problems autonomously. It enables systems to be flexible so that they can survive by rapidly responding and adapting their behaviors to any expected or even unexpected changes in the surrounding environment. This study aims to provide a literature review of the VSM as a conceptual framework for designing viable systems, and its applications in the field of higher education (HE). Design/methodology/approach The review is based on explaining “What is organizational cybernetics?”, clarifying the principles of the VSM as a rational model for designing viable organizations, discussing its drawbacks and the extended VSM, and then presenting a literature review of VSM applications in HE based on papers mainly published from 1993 to 2017. Findings Although there are many contributions provided by applying the VSM in HE, the previous developed models used Beer’s framework with its drawbacks without referring to some important factors neglected within it which are discussed in this review. Originality/value The study presents a summary of previous research on this topic and clarifies the essential issues needed to be addressed to design viable systems. Based on the gaps identified in the literature, some issues have been emphasized to be addressed in future research.
Purpose The purpose of this study is to use the power of organization cybernetics (OC) to design a flexible viable academic department that is at the risk of losing its viability because of the complexity of the educational environment. Design/methodology/approach The proposed framework is developed based on Beer’s OC and the viable system model (VSM). This study adopts the guidelines for applying the VSM described by Stafford Beer and José Pérez Ríos. Findings The framework presents a comprehensive explanation of the essential functions of a viable academic department. In addition, it determines the basis for an inclusive redesign that can be used to maintain the department’s identity and viability as well. Originality/value Although there are many studies applying the framework of the VSM, in an educational context, most of them limited its usage to the evaluation of the viability of academic departments. They did not use the power of OC to design for systemic viability. Accordingly, the application of OC and the VSM, for the sake of designing a viable academic department, can be considered as highly original.
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