BackgroundBlood pressure (BP) trajectories derived from measurements repeated over years have low measurement error and may improve cardiovascular disease prediction compared to single, average, and usual BP (single BP adjusted for regression dilution). We characterized 10‐year BP trajectories and examined their association with cardiovascular mortality, all‐cause mortality, and life years lost.Methods and ResultsData from 2 prospective and nearly extinct cohorts of middle‐aged men—the Minnesota Business and Professional Men Study (n=261) and the Zutphen Study (n=632)—were used. BP was measured annually during 1947–1957 in Minnesota and 1960–1970 in Zutphen. BP trajectories were identified by latent mixture modeling. Cox proportional hazards and linear regression models examined BP trajectories with cardiovascular mortality, all‐cause mortality, and life years lost. Associations were adjusted for age, serum cholesterol, smoking, and diabetes mellitus. Mean initial age was about 50 years in both cohorts. After 10 years of BP measurements, men were followed until death on average 20 years later. All Minnesota men and 98% of Zutphen men died. Four BP trajectories were identified, in which mean systolic BP increased by 5 to 49 mm Hg in Minnesota and 5 to 20 mm Hg in Zutphen between age 50 and 60. The third systolic BP trajectories were associated with 2 to 4 times higher cardiovascular mortality risk, 2 times higher all‐cause mortality risk, and 4 to 8 life years lost, compared to the first trajectory.ConclusionsTen‐year BP trajectories were the strongest predictors, among different BP measures, of cardiovascular mortality, all‐cause mortality, and life years lost in Minnesota. However, average BP was the strongest predictor in Zutphen.

Aims/hypothesis The aim of this study was to examine the association of physical activity (PA) with all-cause mortality and incident and prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD) among patients with type 1 diabetes. Methods The EURODIAB Prospective Complications Study is a cohort including 3,250 male and female patients with type 1 diabetes (mean age 32.7±10.2 years) from 16 European countries, of whom 1,880 participated in followup examinations. In analysis 1 (longitudinal), the association of baseline PA (based on the reported number of hours per week spent in mild, moderate and vigorous PA) with allcause mortality and incident CVD was examined by performing survival analysis. In analysis 2 (cross-sectional), we focused on the association between PA at follow-up (data on sports, walking distance and regular bicycling) and prevalent CVD by performing logistic regression analysis. Adjustments were made for age, sex, BMI, smoking, consumption of alcohol, consumption of certain nutrients and diabetic complications. Results Analysis 1 (longitudinal): participation in moderate or vigorous PA once a week or more was borderline inversely associated with all-cause mortality (men and women combined) (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.42, 1.03) and incident CVD (women only) (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.40, 1.08). No association was found in men. Analysis 2 (cross-sectional): total PA (indexed by sports, walking, bicycling) and distance walked were inversely associated with prevalent CVD (OR totalPA 0.66, 95% CI 0.45, 0.97; and OR walking 0.61, 95% CI 0.42, 0.89). Conclusions/interpretation PA showed a borderline inverse association with both all-cause mortality (both sexes) and incident CVD (women only) in patients with type 1 diabetes. Since this is an under-researched clinical population, future longitudinal studies with objective PA measurements are needed to expand on these results.

There is growing evidence from epidemiological studies that dietary protein may beneficially influence blood pressure (BP), but findings are inconclusive. We performed a meta-analysis of 29 observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of dietary protein and types of protein in relation to BP or incident hypertension, published until January 2012. The analysis included eight cross-sectional studies (n=48 985), four prospective studies (n=11 761) and 17 RCTs (n=1449). A modest inverse association between total protein intake and BP (-0.20 mm Hg systolic (95% CI: -0.39, -0.01) per 25 g (∼1 s.d.)) was found in cross-sectional studies, but not in prospective studies (relative risk of 0.99 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.02)). For RCTs that used carbohydrate as a control treatment, the pooled BP effect was -2.11 mm Hg systolic (95% CI: -2.86, -1.37) for a weighed mean contrast in protein intake of 41 g per day. A non-significant inverse association of -0.52 mm Hg systolic (95% CI: -1.10, +0.05) per 11 g (∼1 s.d.) was found for plant protein in cross-sectional studies, whereas animal protein was not associated with BP. In prospective studies and RCTs, however, the associations of plant protein and animal protein with BP were broadly similar. These findings suggest that increasing the intake of protein at the expense of carbohydrates may have a beneficial effect on BP. The BP effect of specific types of protein remains to be established.

OBJECTIVESTo investigate whether measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine has positive non-specific effects in a high income setting and to compare rates of hospital admissions for infections between children aged ≤2 years who received live MMR vaccine and those who received an inactivated vaccine against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio, and Haemophilus influenzae type b (DTaP-IPV-Hib) as their most recent vaccination. DESIGNNationwide population based cohort study. SETTINGIn the Netherlands, DTaP-IPV-Hib+pneumococcal vaccination (PCV) is recommended at ages 2, 3, 4, and 11 months and MMR + meningococcal C (MenC) vaccination at age 14 months. Data from the national vaccine register were linked to hospital admission data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURESHazard ratio for admission to hospital for infection in children with MMR+MenC compared with the fourth DTaP-IPV-Hib+PCV as their most recent vaccination. Cox regression was performed with most recent vaccination as time dependent variable, adjusted for potential confounders. Analyses were repeated with admission for injuries or poisoning as a negative control outcome. In addition, rate of admission for infection was compared between the fourth and third DTaP-IPV-Hib+PCVas most recent vaccination. RESULTS Having had CONCLUSIONSHealthy vaccinee bias could at least partly explain the observed lower rate of admission to hospital with infection after MMR vaccination. The lower rate is associated with receipt of any additional vaccine, not specifically MMR vaccine. This emphasises the caution required in the interpretation of findings from observational studies on non-specific effects of vaccination.

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IntroductionCeliac disease (CD) is associated with an increased risk of major depressive disorder, possibly due to deficiencies in micronutrients in the gluten-free diet. We aimed to investigate whether essential amino acids (i.e., the precursors of serotonin, dopamine and other neurotransmitters) are depleted in the diet and serum of CD patients with major depressive disorder.MethodsIn a cross-sectional study we assessed dietary intake of amino acids and serum levels of amino acids, in 77 CD patients on a gluten-free diet and in 33 healthy controls. Major depressive disorder was assessed with structured interviews (using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview Plus). Dietary intake was assessed using a 203-item food frequency questionnaire.ResultsParticipants had a mean age of 55 years and 74% were women. The intake of vegetable protein was significantly lower in CD patients than in healthy controls (mean difference of 7.8 g/d; 95% CI: 4.7–10.8), as were serum concentrations of tyrosine, phenylalanine and tryptophan (all p < 0.005). However, within the CD patient group, the presence of major depressive disorder (n = 42) was not associated with intake or serum levels of essential amino acids.ConclusionsPatients with CD on a long-term gluten-free diet, with good adherence, consume significantly less vegetable protein than controls, and their serum levels of several essential amino acids were also lower. Despite its potential adverse effect, intake and serum levels of essential amino acids were not related to major depression.

The added value of blood pressure (BP) trajectories for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) is currently unknown. We investigated the association of systolic BP (SBP) trajectories with CVD and all-cause mortality and compared these associations with those of average SBP, taking antihypertensive medication into account. Data from 762 participants of the Rancho Bernardo Study were used. SBP from five examinations (maximum) from 1984 to 2002 was used; mortality data were obtained from 2002 to 2013. SBP trajectories were derived using group-based trajectory modelling. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to investigate associations of trajectories and average SBP with CVD and all-cause mortality, adjusted for age, sex, cholesterol, smoking, diabetes and antihypertensive medication. Mean baseline age was 65.7 years, and 67% were women. Four trajectories were identified, in which mean SBP increased by 5-12 mm Hg during 10 years. The highest trajectories were associated with two to three times greater CVD mortality and 1.5 times greater all-cause mortality risk, compared with the lowest trajectory. Each 20 mmHg increment in average SBP was associated with 1.4 times greater CVD mortality risk and 1.2 times all-cause mortality risk. Associations were not modified by antihypertensive medication (P-interaction>0.10). SBP trajectories were not superior to average SBP in predicting CVD and all-cause mortality. In the general middle-aged and older population of the Rancho Bernardo study, SBP trajectories provided no added value to average SBP in predicting CVD and all-cause mortality. Long-term average SBP levels and trajectories were significant predictors of CVD and all-cause mortality, irrespective of prescribed antihypertensive medication (which in the 1980s-1990s mainly were diuretics and β-blockers).