Objective To determine the effect of calcium supplementation on myocardial infarction, stroke, and sudden death in healthy postmenopausal women. Design Randomised, placebo controlled trial. Setting Academic medical centre in an urban setting in New Zealand. Participants 1471 postmenopausal women (mean age 74): 732 were randomised to calcium supplementation and 739 to placebo. Main outcome measures Adverse cardiovascular events over five years: death, sudden death, myocardial infarction, angina, other chest pain, stroke, transient ischaemic attack, and a composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, or sudden death. Results Myocardial infarction was more commonly reported in the calcium group than in the placebo group (45 events in 31 women v 19 events in 14 women, P=0.01). The composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, or sudden death was also more common in the calcium group (101 events in 69 women v 54 events in 42 women, P=0.008). After adjudication myocardial infarction remained more common in the calcium group (24 events in 21 women v 10 events in 10 women, relative risk 2.12, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 4.47). For the composite end point 61 events were verified in 51 women in the calcium group and 36 events in 35 women in the placebo group (relative risk 1.47, 0.97 to 2.23). When unreported events were added from the national database of hospital admissions in New Zealand the relative risk of myocardial infarction was 1.49 (0.86 to 2.57) and that of the composite end point was 1.21 (0.84 to 1.74). The respective rate ratios were 1.67 (95% confidence intervals 0.98 to 2.87) and 1.43 (1.01 to 2.04); event rates: placebo 16.3/1000 person years, calcium 23.3/1000 person years. For stroke (including unreported events) the relative risk was 1.37 (0.83 to 2.28) and the rate ratio was 1.45 (0.88 to 2.49). Conclusion Calcium supplementation in healthy postmenopausal women is associated with upward trends in cardiovascular event rates. This potentially detrimental effect should be balanced against the likely benefits of calcium on bone.Trial registration Australian Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN 012605000242628.

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Seasonal variation significantly affects the diagnosis of vitamin D sufficiency, which requires seasonally adjusted thresholds individualized for different locations. Clinicians should consider the month of sampling and the amount of body fat when interpreting 25(OH)D measurements.

Calcium supplementation significantly slowed axial and appendicular bone loss in normal post-menopausal women.

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Fracture risk calculators estimate the absolute risk of osteoporotic fractures. We investigated the performance of the FRAX and Garvan Institute fracture risk calculators in healthy, older, New Zealand, postmenopausal women with normal bone mineral density (BMD) for their age. Fractures were ascertained in women initially enrolled in a 5-year trial of calcium supplements and followed on average for 8.8 years. Baseline data (1422 women, mean age 74 years, mean femoral neck BMD T-score -1.3) were used to estimate fracture risk during follow-up using the FRAX and Garvan calculators. The FRAX-New Zealand tool was used both with and without baseline BMD. The discrimination of the calculators was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curves. The calibration was assessed by comparing estimated risk of fracture with fracture incidence across a range of estimated fracture risks and clinical factors. For each fracture subtype, the calculators had comparable moderate predictive discriminative ability (AUC range: hip fracture 0.67-0.70; osteoporotic fracture 0.62-0.64; any fracture 0.60-0.63) that was similar to that of models using only age and BMD. The Garvan calculator was well calibrated for osteoporotic fractures but overestimated hip fractures. FRAX with BMD underestimated osteoporotic and hip fractures. FRAX without BMD underestimated osteoporotic and overestimated hip fractures. In summary, none of the calculators provided better discrimination than models based on age and BMD, and their discriminative ability was only moderate, which may limit their clinical utility. The calibration varied, suggesting that the calculators should be validated in local cohorts before clinical use. ß