No abstract

Determining whether a person with stroke has reached their full potential for recovery is difficult. While techniques such as transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and MRI have some prognostic value, their role in rehabilitation is undefined. This study used TMS and MRI to determine which factors predict functional potential, defined as an individual's capacity for further functional improvement at least 6 months following stroke. We studied 21 chronic stroke patients with upper limb impairment. The functional integrity of the corticospinal tracts (CSTs) was assessed using TMS and functional MRI. The presence or absence of motor-evoked responses (MEPs) to TMS in the affected upper limb, and the lateralization of cortical activity during affected hand use were determined. The structural integrity of the CST was assessed using MRI, and diffusion tensor imaging was used to measure the asymmetry in fractional anisotropy (FA) of the internal capsules. A multiple linear regression analysis was performed, to predict both clinical score at inception and change in clinical score for 17 patients who completed a 30 day programme of motor practice with the affected upper limb. The main findings were that in patients with MEPs, meaningful gains were still possible 3 years after stroke, although the capacity for improvement declined with time. In patients without MEPs, functional potential declines with increasing CST disruption, with no meaningful gains possible if FA asymmetry exceeds a value of 0.25. This study is the first to demonstrate the complementary nature of TMS and MRI techniques in predicting functional potential in chronic stroke patients. An algorithm is proposed for the selection of individualized rehabilitation strategies, based on the prediction of functional potential. These strategies could include neuromodulation using a range of emerging techniques, to prime the motor system for a plastic response to rehabilitation.

Stroke is a leading cause of adult disability and the recovery of motor function is important for independence in activities of daily living. Predicting motor recovery after stroke in individual patients is difficult. Accurate prognosis would enable realistic rehabilitation goal-setting and more efficient allocation of resources. The aim of this study was to test and refine an algorithm for predicting the potential for recovery of upper limb function after stroke. Forty participants were prospectively enrolled within 3 days of ischaemic stroke. First, shoulder abduction and finger extension strength were graded 72 h after stroke onset to compute a shoulder abduction and finger extension score. Secondly, transcranial magnetic stimulation was used to assess the functional integrity of descending motor pathways to the affected upper limb. Third, diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging was used to assess the structural integrity of the posterior limbs of the internal capsules. Finally, these measures were combined in the PREP algorithm for predicting an individual's potential for upper limb recovery at 12 weeks, measured with the Action Research Arm Test. A cluster analysis was used to independently group patients according to Action Research Arm Test score at 12 weeks, for comparison with predictions from the PREP algorithm. There was excellent correspondence between the cluster analysis of Action Research Arm Test score at 12 weeks and predictions made with the PREP algorithm. The algorithm had positive predictive power of 88%, negative predictive power of 83%, specificity of 88% and sensitivity of 73%. This study provides preliminary data in support of the PREP algorithm for the prognosis of upper limb recovery in individual patients. PREP may enable tailored planning of rehabilitation and more accurate stratification of patients in clinical trials.

Objective To determine the effect of calcium supplementation on myocardial infarction, stroke, and sudden death in healthy postmenopausal women. Design Randomised, placebo controlled trial. Setting Academic medical centre in an urban setting in New Zealand. Participants 1471 postmenopausal women (mean age 74): 732 were randomised to calcium supplementation and 739 to placebo. Main outcome measures Adverse cardiovascular events over five years: death, sudden death, myocardial infarction, angina, other chest pain, stroke, transient ischaemic attack, and a composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, or sudden death. Results Myocardial infarction was more commonly reported in the calcium group than in the placebo group (45 events in 31 women v 19 events in 14 women, P=0.01). The composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, or sudden death was also more common in the calcium group (101 events in 69 women v 54 events in 42 women, P=0.008). After adjudication myocardial infarction remained more common in the calcium group (24 events in 21 women v 10 events in 10 women, relative risk 2.12, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 4.47). For the composite end point 61 events were verified in 51 women in the calcium group and 36 events in 35 women in the placebo group (relative risk 1.47, 0.97 to 2.23). When unreported events were added from the national database of hospital admissions in New Zealand the relative risk of myocardial infarction was 1.49 (0.86 to 2.57) and that of the composite end point was 1.21 (0.84 to 1.74). The respective rate ratios were 1.67 (95% confidence intervals 0.98 to 2.87) and 1.43 (1.01 to 2.04); event rates: placebo 16.3/1000 person years, calcium 23.3/1000 person years. For stroke (including unreported events) the relative risk was 1.37 (0.83 to 2.28) and the rate ratio was 1.45 (0.88 to 2.49). Conclusion Calcium supplementation in healthy postmenopausal women is associated with upward trends in cardiovascular event rates. This potentially detrimental effect should be balanced against the likely benefits of calcium on bone.Trial registration Australian Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN 012605000242628.