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The decomposition of plant litter is one of the most important ecosystem processes in the biosphere and is particularly sensitive to climate warming. Aquatic ecosystems are well suited to studying warming effects on decomposition because the otherwise confounding influence of moisture is constant. By using a latitudinal temperature gradient in an unprecedented global experiment in streams, we found that climate warming will likely hasten microbial litter decomposition and produce an equivalent decline in detritivore-mediated decomposition rates. As a result, overall decomposition rates should remain unchanged. Nevertheless, the process would be profoundly altered, because the shift in importance from detritivores to microbes in warm climates would likely increase CO(2) production and decrease the generation and sequestration of recalcitrant organic particles. In view of recent estimates showing that inland waters are a significant component of the global carbon cycle, this implies consequences for global biogeochemistry and a possible positive climate feedback.

Invertebrate diversity patterns were examined in 11 freshwater habitats (10 streams and a windswept lake shore) of similar physicochemical nature but different thermal and hydrologic stability in the Cass—Craigieburn region, New Zealand. Species richness and density were markedly higher at the more stable sites, but species evenness peaked at sites of intermediate stability. Of the 20 environmental variables examined, a multivariate instability index incorporating temporal variation in depth, temporal variation in current speed, substrate stability, the Pfankuch channel stability index, temperature range, and stream reach tractive force was the single best predictor of the number of species, whereas epilithic pigment concentration was the single best predictor of invertebrate density. The pattern in species richness did not support any of three diversity hypotheses considered. In contrast, the pattern in species evenness suggested competitive exclusion may be occurring patchily and that Hutson's dynamic equilibrium model may have some validity, at least at the level of the patch. However, the strong link between productivity and stability apparent in these habitats, and a lack of information on the effects of increased productivity on competition in stream benthic communities makes any firm assessment of the latter model difficult. The observed diversity patterns are, however, consistent with the idea that high diversity is maintained in these habitats by an interaction between low levels of disturbance and habitat patchiness.

1. Modification of natural landscapes and land-use intensification are global phenomena that can result in a range of differing pressures on lotic ecosystems. We analysed national-scale databases to quantify the relationship between three land uses (indigenous vegetation, urbanisation and agriculture) and indicators of stream ecological integrity. Boosted regression tree modelling was used to test the response of 14 indicators belonging to four groups -water quality (at 578 sites), benthic invertebrates (at 2666 sites), fish (at 6858 sites) and ecosystem processes (at 156 sites). Our aims were to characterise the ecological response curves of selected functional and structural metrics in relation to three land uses, examine the environmental moderators of these relationships and quantify the relative utility of metrics as indicators of stream ecological integrity. 2. The strongest indicators of land-use effects were nitrate + nitrite, delta-15 nitrogen value (d 15 N) of primary consumers and the Macroinvertebrate Community Index (a biotic index of organic pollution), while the weakest overall indicators were gross primary productivity, benthic invertebrate richness and fish richness. All indicators declined in response to removal of indigenous vegetation and urbanisation, while variable responses to agricultural intensity were observed for some indicators. 3. The response curves for several indicators suggested distinct thresholds in response to urbanisation and agriculture, specifically at 10% impervious cover and at 0.1 g m )3 nitrogen concentration, respectively. 4. Water quality and ecosystem process indicators were influenced by a combination of temperature, slope and flow variables, whereas for macroinvertebrate indicators, catchment rainfall, segment slope and temperature were significant environmental predictor variables. Downstream variables (e.g. distance to the coast) were significant in explaining residual variation in fish indicators, not surprisingly given the preponderance of diadromous fish species in New Zealand waterways. The inclusion of continuous environmental variables used to develop a stream typology improved model performance more than the inclusion of stream type alone. 5. Our results reaffirm the importance of accounting for underlying spatial variation in the environment when quantifying relationships between land use and the ecological integrity of streams. Of distinctive interest, however, were the contrasting and complementary responses of different indicators of stream integrity to land use, suggesting that multiple indicators are required

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To define whether the beta diversity of stream invertebrate communities in New Zealand exhibits geographical variation unexplained by variation in gamma diversity and, if so, what mechanisms (productivity, habitat heterogeneity, dispersal limitation, disturbance) best explain the observed broad-scale beta diversity patterns. We sampled 120 streams across eight regions (stream catchments), spanning a north–south gradient of 12° of latitude, and calculated beta diversity (with both species richness and abundance data) for each region. We explored through a null model if beta diversity deviates from the expectation of stochastic assembly processes and whether the magnitude of the deviation varies geographically. We then performed multimodel inference analysis on the key environmental drivers of beta diversity, using Akaike's information criterion and model and predictor weights to select the best model(s) explaining beta diversity. Beta diversity was, unexpectedly, highest in the South Island. The null model analysis revealed that beta diversity was greater than expected by chance in all eight regions, but the magnitude of beta deviation was higher in the South Island, suggesting differences in environmental filtering and/or dispersal limitation between North and South Island. Habitat heterogeneity was the predominant driver of beta diversity of stream macroinvertebrates, with productivity having a secondary, and negative, contribution. This is one of the first studies accounting for stochastic effects while examining the ecological drivers of beta diversity. Our results suggest that local environmental heterogeneity may be the strongest determinant of beta diversity of stream invertebrates, more so than regional- or landscape-scale variables.

Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world.