Glaciers cover ∼10% of the Earth's land surface, but they are shrinking rapidly across most parts of the world, leading to cascading impacts on downstream systems. Glaciers impart unique footprints on river flow at times when other water sources are low. Changes in river hydrology and morphology caused by climate-induced glacier loss are projected to be the greatest of any hydrological system, with major implications for riverine and near-shore marine environments. Here, we synthesize current evidence of how glacier shrinkage will alter hydrological regimes, sediment transport, and biogeochemical and contaminant fluxes from rivers to oceans. This will profoundly influence the natural environment, including many facets of biodiversity, and the ecosystem services that glacier-fed rivers provide to humans, particularly provision of water for agriculture, hydropower, and consumption. We conclude that human society must plan adaptation and mitigation measures for the full breadth of impacts in all affected regions caused by glacier shrinkage.
River damming has been practised for millennia, with the first dams built before 2000 BCE in the Egyptian empire 1. The number of dams increased steadily prior to the Second World War, but expanded rapidly thereafter, peaking in the 1960s and 1970s, with most construction in North America and Western Europe 2. A second surge in dam construction began in the early 2000s, with over 3,700 hydroelectric dams either planned or under construction worldwide during this construction boom 3 , each with a generating capacity of >1 megawatt (MW). Many of the new dams are being constructed in South America, Asia and the Balkans, largely driven by the need to expand energy production in growing economies 3,4. Indeed, by 2015, dammed reservoirs supplied around 30-40% of irrigation water globally 5,6 , and 16.6% of the world's electricity was generated by hydropower 7. Almost two-thirds of the world's long rivers (that is, those >1,000 km) are no longer free-flowing 8 and the current surge in dam construction-motivated by the 2016 Paris Agreement and the need for greater renewable energy generation-is expected to double river fragmentation by 2030 (ref. 9). Accordingly, freshwater ecosystems have been referred to as the 'biggest losers' of the Paris Agreement 10. Nutrients, such as carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silicon (Si), are transported and transformed along the land-ocean aquatic continuum (LOAC), forming the basis for freshwater and, ultimately, marine food webs.
Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world.
Global change threatens invertebrate biodiversity and its central role in numerous ecosystem functions and services. Functional trait analyses have been advocated to uncover global mechanisms behind biodiversity responses to environmental change, but the application of this approach for invertebrates is underdeveloped relative to other organism groups. From an evaluation of 363 records comprising >1.23 million invertebrates collected from rivers across nine biogeographic regions on three continents, consistent responses of community trait composition and diversity to replicated gradients of reduced glacier cover are demonstrated. After accounting for a systematic regional effect of latitude, the processes shaping river invertebrate functional diversity are globally consistent. Analyses nested within individual regions identified an increase in functional diversity as glacier cover decreases. Community assembly models demonstrated that dispersal limitation was the dominant process underlying these patterns, although environmental filtering was also evident in highly glacierized basins. These findings indicate that predictable mechanisms govern river invertebrate community responses to decreasing glacier cover globally.
Sedimented hydrothermal vents, where hot, mineral-rich water flows through sediment, are poorly understood globally, both in their distribution and the ecology of individual vent fields. We explored macrofaunal community ecology at a sediment-hosted hydrothermal vent in the Southern Ocean. This is the first such study of these ecosystems outside of the Pacific and the furthest south (62 • S) of any vent system studied. Sedimentary fauna were sampled in four areas of the Bransfield Strait (Southern Ocean), with the aim of contrasting community structure between vent and non-vent sites. Macrofaunal assemblages were clearly distinct between vent and non-vent sites, and diversity, richness, and density declined toward maximum hydrothermal activity. This variation is in contrast to observations from similar systems in the Pacific and demonstrates the influence of factors other than chemosynthetic primary productivity in structuring infauna at deep-sea vent communities. Vent endemic fauna had limited abundance and were represented by a single siboglinid species at hydrothermally active areas, meaning that that the majority of local biota were those also found in other areas. Several taxa occupied all sampling stations but there were large differences in their relative abundances, suggesting communities were structured by niche variation rather than dispersal ability.
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