Nowadays, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is spreading around the world and has attracted extremely wide public attention. From the beginning of the outbreak to now, there have been many mathematical models proposed to describe the spread of the pandemic, and most of them are established with the assumption that people contact with each other in a homogeneous pattern. However, owing to the difference of individuals in reality, social contact is usually heterogeneous, and the models on homogeneous networks cannot accurately describe the outbreak. Thus, we propose a susceptible-asymptomaticinfected-removed (SAIR) model on social networks to describe the spread of COVID-19 and analyse the outbreak based on the epidemic data of Wuhan from January 24 to March 2. Then, according to the results of the simulations, we discover that the measures that can curb the spread of COVID-19 include increasing the
In the context of public health emergency management, it is worth studying ways to mobilize the enthusiasm of government, community, and residents. This paper adopts the method of combining evolutionary game and system dynamics to conduct a theoretical modeling and simulation analysis on the interactions of the behavioral strategies of the three participants. In response to opportunistic behavior and inadequate supervision in the static reward and punishment mechanism, we introduced a dynamic reward and punishment mechanism that considers changes in the social environment and the situation of epidemic prevention and control. This paper proves that the dynamic reward and punishment mechanism can effectively suppress the fluctuation problem in the evolutionary game process under static scenarios and achieve better supervision results through scenario analysis and simulation experiments.
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