Compared with individual extreme events, compound events have more severe impacts on humans and the natural environment. This study explores the change in severity of compound extreme high temperature and drought/rain events (CHTDE/CHTRE) and associated influencing factors. The CHTDE and CHTRE intensified in most areas of China in summer (June–July August) during 1961–2014. Under global warming, the increased water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and the decreased relative humidity led to an increase in the severity of CHTDE. The severity of CHTRE is increased because of enhanced transient water vapor convergence and convective motion. Anthropogenic climate change, especially greenhouse gas forcing, which contributes 90% to the linear change in the severity of CHTDE and CHTRE, is identified as the dominant factor affecting the severity of CHTDE in China. In addition, the historical natural forcing (hist-NAT) may be related to the interannual-to-decadal variability in the severity of CHTDE/CHTRE.
<p>In the context of global warming, droughts&#160;occur more frequently&#160;and have caused great losses&#160;to human society.&#160;Therefore, understanding the potential changes in future droughts under climate change is of great scientific importance. In this paper, combining with climate models from CMIP6, the emergent constraint and the Model Goodness Index (MGI)&#160;are used to analyze the characteristics of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts&#160;in China under four socioeconomic scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century. The results show that in the mid-21st century, there will be more frequent meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts&#160;in northern China. In the late 21st century, longer and more intense droughts&#160;are more likely to occur in China than in the mid-21st century.&#160;This indicates that drought events in China will gradually become more continuous and serious from the middle to the late 21st century.&#160;Additionally, northwestern&#160;and central China will be the main areas where the three types of drought&#160;areas&#160;and extreme droughts&#160;will increase in the future.&#160;In the mid-21st century, a higher socioeconomic scenario will suppress drought, which will enhance drought conversely in the late 21st century.&#160;These findings are of great significance for drought monitoring under climate change and&#160;can provide a basis for making a drought response&#160;plan.</p>
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.