Future projections of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China using the emergent constraint

Abstract

<p>In the context of global warming, droughts occur more frequently and have caused great losses to human society. Therefore, understanding the potential changes in future droughts under climate change is of great scientific importance. In this paper, combining with climate models from CMIP6, the emergent constraint and the Model Goodness Index (MGI) are used to analyze the characteristics of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China under four socioeconomic scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century. The results show that in the mid-21st century, there will be more frequent meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in northern China. In the late 21st century, longer and more intense droughts are more likely to occur in China than in the mid-21st century. This indicates that drought events in China will gradually become more continuous and serious from the middle to the late 21st century. Additionally, northwestern and central China will be the main areas where the three types of drought areas and extreme droughts will increase in the future. In the mid-21st century, a higher socioeconomic scenario will suppress drought, which will enhance drought conversely in the late 21st century. These findings are of great significance for drought monitoring under climate change and can provide a basis for making a drought response plan.</p>