Anthropogenic impact on the severity of compound extreme high temperature and drought/rain events in China

Li, Wanling; Sun, Bо; Wang, Huijun; Zhou, Botao; Li, Huixin; Xue, Rufan; Duan, Mingkeng; Luo, Xiao‐Chun; Ai, Wenwen

doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00413-3

Cited by 13 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…In JH, both temperature and precipitation showed increasing trends in summertime during 1961-2022 (figures 2(a)-(f)), thus leading to concurrent hot and humid trend in the region. The results align with previous studies by Wang et al (2012) and Li et al (2023b). Significant increases in the frequency and extent of SCHDEs in China have been observed since the 1990s, which is similar to previous studies (Wu et al 2019(Wu et al , 2020.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Summertime compound heat wave and drought events in China: interregional and subseasonal characteristics, and the associated driving factors

Zeng,

Li,

Sun

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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This study investigates the characteristics of compound heat wave and drought events (CHDEs) across various subregions of China from 1961 to 2022 by utilizing a monthly probability-based index. The results uncover significant interregional and subseasonal variations. The trend analysis of CHDEs reveals statistically significant increases in most regions of China, however, there is no significant trend in the JiangHuai region throughout the entire summer season. The trends across regions exhibited subseasonal differences, especially in the eastern regions (Northeast China, North China, and South China (SC)). Furthermore, the occurrence of severe CHDEs (SCHDEs) in China has significantly increased in both frequency and extent since the 1990s. Southwest China and eastern Northwest China have witnessed the highest frequency of SCHDEs, while SC has remained relatively unaffected compared to other regions. The occurrences of SCHDE demonstrate a higher frequency occurred in June than in July and August, especially in the southern regions. The local driving factors are further explored. The incidence of CHDEs in eastern China is significantly influenced by anticyclonic circulation anomalies, which span from the upper to the lower troposphere. These anomalies are crucial in shaping the dynamic and moisture conditions necessary for CHDE formation. Their specific locations dictate the unique atmospheric conditions that lead to the regional characteristics of CHDEs across eastern China.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Summertime compound heat wave and drought events in China: interregional and subseasonal characteristics, and the associated driving factors

Zeng,

Li,

Sun

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…The long-term land use changes and the limited length of the instrumental record, among other factors, can also influence the attribution (e.g., D. Li et al, 2017;Du et al, 2022;Roxy et al, 2015;Turner & Annamalai, 2012;Yan et al, 2020). Hence, researchers often employ global climate models to detect anthropogenic contributions to the past climate change (e.g., Lewis & Karoly, 2015;Shiogama et al, 2014;Stott et al, 2004;W. Li et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warming Tropical Indian Ocean Wets the Tibetan Plateau

Zhou,

Yuan,

Luo

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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Accurate detection and attribution of past climate change are crucial for projecting future climate change and formulating proper policies. In this study, we show that the warming of the tropical Indian Ocean contributes to the observed wetting trend in the Tibetan plateau. The warming tropical Indian Ocean can lead to more precipitation around the Arabian Sea. The associated diabatic heating triggers the cyclonic atmospheric response in the lower troposphere over the Arabian Sea and eastern Africa. It also causes the enhancement and westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high. The in‐between airflow transports more moisture northward to the plateau, leading to the increased precipitation over the plateau. These large‐scale circulation patterns can be detected from the long‐term trends based on the observations and the large‐ensemble historical simulations. They can also be simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model forced by the observed warming merely in the tropical Indian Ocean.

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“…Excessive heat extremes combined with excessive relative humidity and heavy precipitation might be a greater risk to human lives (Clark & Wu, 2023; Li et al., 2020; Sauter et al., 2023). The increases of compound heat and wet extremes are mainly caused by enhanced water vapor and vertical convection (Li et al., 2023) besides future different emission scenarios (Ren et al., 2023). In addition, the dry and drought events that usually occur with heat extremes severely affect natural ecosystems and agriculture (Ullah et al., 2023), such as grain‐producing regions (de Perez et al., 2023; Wang, Tao, et al., 2023), Wang, Li, et al., 2023nd lengthening dry extremes might also intensify heat extremes (He et al., 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Population Exposure to Heat and Wet Extremes Moving From Chinese to Global 1.5 or 2.0°C Warming

Qin,

Xie

2023

JGR Atmospheres

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The Paris Agreement proposed two global warming levels relative to the preindustrial period, with the ideal objective of 1.5°C warming and an upper boundary of 2.0 °C. However, the years when the temperature will first reach 1.5 or 2.0°C vary in different regions. Therefore, climate extremes and their population exposure are still not clear at regional or global warming levels. This study investigated climate extremes in China at different Chinese and global warming with 16 CMIP6 models under the middle SSP245 scenario. In China, the year when 1.5°C warming is projected to occur is 2020 and 2035 for 2.0°C warming. These values are more than 10 years earlier than the corresponding global warming levels of 2030 and 2049. Population exposure to percentile‐based heat extremes at global 1.5°C warming is projected to greatly increase relative to those when 1.5°C warming occurs in China due to increases in climate extremes, and exposure to absolute heat extreme indices is projected to decrease from Chinese to global 2.0°C warming under the joint impacts of increases in extremes and population decreases. Furthermore, from Chinese to global 1.5°C warming, about 344 million people will experience increased exposure to heat, wet and dry extremes, and around 468 and 371 million people will be affected by increased exposure to heat–wet and heat–dry extremes, respectively. Thus, a more adaptive strategy should be proposed to cope with the future possible natural hazards caused by heat–wet and heat–dry extremes.

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Anthropogenic impact on the severity of compound extreme high temperature and drought/rain events in China

Cited by 13 publications

References 57 publications

Summertime compound heat wave and drought events in China: interregional and subseasonal characteristics, and the associated driving factors

Summertime compound heat wave and drought events in China: interregional and subseasonal characteristics, and the associated driving factors

Warming Tropical Indian Ocean Wets the Tibetan Plateau

Increased Population Exposure to Heat and Wet Extremes Moving From Chinese to Global 1.5 or 2.0°C Warming

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