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This paper aims to investigate the seismic vulnerability of an existing unanchored steel storage tank ideally installed in a refinery in Sicily (Italy), along the lines of performance-based earthquake engineering. Tank performance is estimated by means of component-level fragility curves for specific limit states. The assessment is based on a framework that relies on a three-dimensional finite element (3D FE) model and a low-fidelity demand model based on Gaussian process regression, which allows for cheaper simulations. Moreover, to approximate the system response corresponding to the random variation of both peak ground acceleration and liquid filling level, a second-order design of experiments method is adopted. Hence, a parametric investigation is conducted on a specific existing unanchored steel storage tank. The relevant 3D FE model is validated with an experimental campaign carried out on a shaking table test. Special attention is paid to the base uplift due to significant inelastic deformations that occur at the baseplate close to the welded baseplate-to-wall connection, offering extensive information on both capacity and demand. As a result, the tank performance is estimated by means of component-level fragility curves for the aforementioned limit state which are derived through Monte Carlo simulations. The flexibility of the proposed framework allows fragility curves to be derived considering both deterministic and random filling levels. The comparison of the seismic vulnerability of the tank obtained with probabilistic and deterministic mechanical models demonstrates the conservatism of the latter. The same trend is also exhibited in terms of risk assessment.

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The catastrophic consequences of recent NaTech events triggered by earthquakes highlighted the inadequacy of standard approaches to seismic risk assessment of chemical process plants. To date, the risk assessment of such facilities mainly relies on historical data and focuses on uncoupled process components. As a consequence, the dynamic interaction between process equipment is neglected. In response to this gap, researchers started a progressive integration of the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) risk assessment framework. However, a few limitations still prevent a systematic implementation of this framework to chemical process plants. The most significant are: i) the computational cost of system-level simulations accounting for coupling between process equipment; ii) the experimental cost for component-level model validation; iii) a reduced number of hazard-consistent site-specific ground motion records for time history analyses.In response to these challenges, this paper proposes a recently developed uncertainty quantification-based framework to perform seismic fragility assessments of chemical process plants. The framework employs three key elements: i) a stochastic ground-motion model to supplement scarcity of real records; ii) surrogate modeling to reduce the computational cost of system-level simulations; iii) a component-level model validation based on cost-effective hybrid simulation tests. In order to demonstrate the potential of the framework, two fragility functions are computed for a pipe elbow of a coupled tank-piping system.

Dynamic analysis is an integral part of seismic risk assessment of industrial plants. Such analysis often neglects actual boundary conditions or proper coupling between structures of coupled systems, which introduces uncertainty into the system and may lead to erroneous results, e.g., an incorrect fragility curve, in comparison with the actual behaviour of the analyzed structure. Hence, it is important to study the effect of uncertainties on the dynamic characteristics of a system, when coupling effects are neglected. Along this line, this paper investigates the effects of uncertain boundary conditions on the dynamic response of coupled tank-piping systems subjected to seismic loading. In particular, to take into account the presence of the tank as boundary condition for the piping system, two sources of uncertainty were considered: the tank aspect ratio and the piping-to-tank attachment height ratio. Moreover, to model the seismic input, a Filtered White Noise (FWN) characterized by a Kanai-Tajimi spectrum was used. Finally, to study the dynamic interaction of a set of coupled tank-piping systems, the non-intrusive stochastic collocation (SC) technique was applied. It allowed for calculating surface responses of stresses and axial loads of a pair of components of the coupled system with a reduced number of deterministic numerical simulations.

Bolted Flange Joints (BFJs) represent the most common and critical components used nearly in all industrial piping systems, including Oil & Gas plants. Owing to their strategic importance and heavy consequences both to the environment and human lives due to both damage and leakage, BFJs are considered very important in industrial plant design. Therefore, their behaviour becomes critical also under seismic actions. Along this line, in the first part of this paper the experimental test campaign performed on enhanced bolted flange joints subject to both monotonic and cyclic loading is presented and discussed. Then, specific values of both stiffness and strength with reference to leakage are estimated. Successively, a reliable model capable of predicting the leakage force for a generic BFJ, including the interaction between the axial and shear load, is proposed and validated; in particular, both actual and previous full scale experimental data were involved in the validation. As a result, the values predicted by the model agree well with those obtained by the experiments. This model is also adopted to predict leakage stiffness values for thick flanges. Overall, the proposed analytical model can represent a promising tool for the leakage prediction of BFJs in complex piping systems.