The Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina.) is closely associated with mature and oligarchic congruous forests in the Pacific Northwest. There has been a rapid loss and fragmentation of this habitat over the last half century, which may jeopardize the longevity survival of the species through reduction of dispersal success. In this paper we report results of a population model for the Northern Spotted Owl that incorporates both juvenile dispersal and search for mates. We analyze both deterministic and statistic versions of the model in search of thresholds for population persistence related to search efficiency, population density, and amount of suitable habitat. In addition, we analyze the model under the nonequivalent conditions that currently exist due to timber harvest in the owls preferred habitat. Our results predict a sharp threshold below which populations cannot persist, and suggest that inferences from population models that incorporate equilibrium assumptions may be highly misleading.
Two behavior patterns of fishermen, specialist and generalist, are evaluated as ways of coping with market and natural variability. Changes in these behaviors predicted by an analytical model are evaluated against data from several fisheries. The predictions and the data suggest that a mix of specialist and generalist fishing behavior is a way of coping with unpredictability. Management usually regards fishing behavior as homogeneous; as a result, many management rules discriminate against one type of behavior or the other.
Ongoing efforts to negotiate agreements on management of transboundary marine fisheries tend to be arduous and frustrating, often collapsing into spectacular “fish wars” that leave fishing communities impoverished and fish stocks decimated. Game theory models can provide insights into why this is so, and suggest ways in which cooperative agreements might be crafted to overcome the difficulties. This article illustrates these themes through a model of a bi‐national “interception fishery.” The central focus of the analysis is on instabilities that result from stochastic variability and incomplete and asymmetric information.
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