Increasingly, models (and modelers) are being asked to address the interactions between human influences, ecological processes, and landscape dynamics that impact many diverse aspects of managing complex coupled human and natural systems. These systems may be profoundly influenced by human decisions at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and the limitations of traditional process-level ecosystems modeling approaches for representing the richness of factors shaping landscape dynamics in these coupled systems has resulted in the need for new analysis approaches. Additionally, new tools in the areas of spatial data management and analysis, multicriteria decision-making, individual-based modeling, and complexity science have all begun to impact how we approach modeling these systems. The term "biocomplexity" has emerged a descriptor of the rich patterns of interactions and behaviors in human and natural systems, and the challenges of analyzing biocomplex behavior is resulting in a convergence of approaches leading to new ways of understanding these systems. Important questions related to system vulnerability and resilience, adaptation, feedback processing, cycling, nonlinearities and other complex behaviors are being addressed using models employing new representational approaches to analysis. An emerging application area is alternative futures analyses, the study of how complex coupled human/natural systems dynamically respond to varying management strategies and driving forces. This methodology is increasingly being used to inform decision makers about the implications of policy alternatives related to land and water management, expressed in terms related to human valuations of the landscape. Trajectories of change become important indicators of system sustainability, and models that can provide insight into factors controlling these trajectories are rapidly becoming essential tools for planning. The complexity inherent in these systems challenges the modeling community to provide tools that capture sufficiently the richness of human and ecosystem processes and interactions in ways that are computationally tractable and understandable. We examine one such tool, Evoland, which uses an actor-based approach to conduct alternative futures analyses in the Willamette Basin, Oregon. Actor-based approaches, spatially-explicit landscape representations, and complexity science are providing new ways to effectively model, and ultimately to understand, these systems.
The Columbia Basin once supported a diversity of native fishes and large runs of anadromous salmonids that sustained substantial fisheries and cultural values. Extensive land conversion, watershed disruptions, and subsequent fishery declines have led to one of the most ambitious restoration programs in the world. Progress has been made, but restoration is expensive (exceeding US$300M/year), and it remains unclear whether habitat actions, in particular, can be successful. A comprehensive approach is needed to guide cost‐effective habitat restoration. Four elements that must be addressed simultaneously are (1) a scientific foundation from landscape ecology and the concept of resilience, (2) broad public support, (3) governance for collaboration and integration, and (4) a capacity for learning and adaptation. Realizing these in the Columbia Basin will require actions to rebalance restoration goals to include diversity, strengthen linkages between science and management, increase public engagement, work across traditional ecological and social boundaries, and learn from experience.
ABSTRACT. Fishery management programs designed to control Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) for optimum production have failed to prevent widespread fish population decline and have caused greater uncertainty for salmon, their ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them. In this special feature introduction, we explore several key attributes of ecosystem resilience that have been overlooked by traditional salmon management approaches. The dynamics of salmon ecosystems involve social-ecological interactions across multiple scales that create difficult mismatches with the many jurisdictions that manage fisheries and other natural resources. Of particular importance to ecosystem resilience are large-scale shifts in oceanic and climatic regimes or in global economic conditions that unpredictably alter social and ecological systems. Past management actions that did not account for such changes have undermined salmon population resilience and increased the risk of irreversible regime shifts in salmon ecosystems. Because salmon convey important provisioning, cultural, and supporting services to their local watersheds, widespread population decline has undermined both human well-being and ecosystem resilience. Strengthening resilience will require expanding habitat opportunities for salmon populations to express their maximum life-history variation. Such actions also may benefit the "response diversity" of local communities by expanding the opportunities for people to express diverse social and economic values. Reestablishing social-ecological connections in salmon ecosystems will provide important ecosystem services, including those that depend on clean water, ample stream flows, functional wetlands and floodplains, intact riparian systems, and abundant fish populations.
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