A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yuqiong; Hartmann, Holly C.; Stewart, Steve; Wagener, Thorsten; Semmens, Darius J.; Stewart, Richard C.; Gupta, H. V.; Dominguez, Damian; Domínguez, Francina; Hulse, David; Letcher, Rebecca; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, Courtland L.; Street, Roger; Ticehurst, Jenifer Lyn; Twery, Mark J.; Delden, Hedwig van; Waldick, Ruth; White, Denis; Winter, Larry

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.010

Cited by 316 publications

(206 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…governance) and environmental (e.g. climate) changes (Mahmoud et al 2009;Therond et al 2009). To construct these scenarios, we use the morphological approach of Godet (2006), which was used to analyse the future of the field-crop sector in the French Midi-Pyrenees region (Bergez et al 2011).…”

Section: A Five-step Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Designing agroecological transitions; A review

Duru

Thérond

Fares

2015

Agron. Sustain. Dev.

353

230

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Concerns about the negative impacts of productivist agriculture have led to the emergence of two forms of ecological modernisation of agriculture. The first, efficiency-substitution agriculture, aims to improve input use efficiency and to minimise environmental impacts of modern farming systems. It is currently the dominant modernisation pathway. The second, biodiversity-based agriculture, aims to develop ecosystem services provided by biological diversity. It currently exists only as a niche. Here we review challenges of implementing biodiversity-based agriculture: managing, at the local level, a consistent transition within and among farming systems, supply chains and natural resource management. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of existing conceptual frameworks developed to analyse farming, socialecological and socio-technical systems. Then we present an integrative framework tailored for structuring analysis of agriculture from the perspective of developing a territorial biodiversity-based agriculture. In addition, we propose a participatory methodology to design this agroecological transition at the local level. This design methodology was developed to support a multi-stakeholder arena in analysing the current situation, identifying future exogenous changes and designing (1) targeted territorial biodiversity-based agriculture, (2) the pathway of the transition and (3) the required adaptive governance structures and management strategies. We conclude by analysing key challenges of designing such a complex transition, developing multi-actor and multidomain approaches based on a combination of scientific and experiential knowledge and on building suitable boundary objects (computer-based and conceptual models, indicators, etc.) to assess innovative systems designed by stakeholders.

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Section: A Five-step Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Designing agroecological transitions; A review

Duru

Thérond

Fares

2015

Agron. Sustain. Dev.

353

230

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“…The associated scenarios, elaborated as detailed descriptions of procedures or management rules that may be finally chosen, are implemented to perform the simulations and comparative analysis of the induced effects. This process can fruitfully use formal approaches to scenario-building (Mahmoud et al, 2009). In this exercise, the integrated model retains all its usefulness and appropriateness of use.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Eisenhardt and Zbaracki, 1992;Shepherd and Maynard Rudd, 2014), it is still possible to generate assumptions about the results of collective negotiations and produce scenarios on this basis. In summary, the kind of modelling we advocate and endorse (Alcamo, 2001;Liu et al, 2008;Mahmoud et al, 2009) represents the main alternatives negotiated within the collective-choice arenas in as many scenarios as needed, to produce the required simulations for a comparative analysis of possible induced changes in the socio-hydrosystem.…”

Section: About the Decisions Of Collective Choice Arenasmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Integrated modelling can simultaneously take into account most of the dimensions related to the issues of resource management (Jakeman et al, 2006). Integrated models that simulate the quantitative aspects of water system dynamics can be implemented as decision-support tools for policy building and managing natural resources within river basins by assessing various societal, hydrological and environmental effects of different scenario-based alternatives (Alcamo et al, 2000;Mahmoud et al, 2009;March et al, 2012). However, the modelling of water management presents a series of difficulties, especially related to the understanding and formalization of the decision-making process in multi-level governance systems (Pahl-Wostl et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Critical multi-level governance issues of integrated modelling: An example of low-water management in the Adour-Garonne basin (France)

Mazzéga

Thérond

Debril

et al. 2014

Journal of Hydrology

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OATAO is an open access repository that collects the work of Toulouse researchers and makes it freely available over the web where possible. This is an author-deposited version published in : http://oatao.univ-toulouse.fr/ Eprints ID : 14792 This paper presents the experience gained related to the development of an integrated simulation model of water policy. Within this context, we analyze particular difficulties raised by the inclusion of multilevel governance that assigns the responsibility of individual or collective decision-making to a variety of actors, regarding measures of which the implementation has significant effects toward the sustainability of socio-hydrosystems. Multi-level governance procedures are compared with the potential of modelbased impact assessment. Our discussion is illustrated on the basis of the exploitation of the multi-agent platform MAELIA dedicated to the simulation of social, economic and environmental impacts of lowwater management in a context of climate and regulatory changes. We focus on three major decisionmaking processes occurring in the Adour-Garonne basin, France: (i) the participatory development of the Master Scheme for Water Planning and Management (SDAGE) under the auspices of the Water Agency; (ii) the publication of water use restrictions in situations of water scarcity; and (iii) the determination of the abstraction volumes for irrigation and their allocation. The MAELIA platform explicitly takes into account the mode of decision-making when it is framed by a procedure set beforehand, focusing on the actors' participation and on the nature and parameters of the measures to be implemented. It is observed that in some water organizations decision-making follows patterns that can be represented as rule-based actions triggered by thresholds of resource states. When decisions are resulting from individual choice, endowing virtual agents with bounded rationality allows us to reproduce (in silico) their behavior and decisions in a reliable way. However, the negotiation processes taking place during the period of time simulated by the models in arenas of collective choices are not all reproducible. Outcomes of some collective decisions are very little or not at all predictable. The development and simulation of a priori policy scenarios capturing the most plausible or interesting outcomes of such collective decisions on measures for low-water management allows these difficulties to be overcome. The building of these kind of scenarios requires close collaboration between researchers and stakeholders involved in arenas of collective choice, and implies the integration of the production of model and the analysis of scenarios as one component of the polycentric political process of water management.

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“…Even though the use of socio-economic scenarios in decision-making may decrease decision failures, understanding the uncertainties in scenario definitions and scenario construction, and communicating it to stakeholders is important and requires more research efforts (Mahmoud et al 2009). To further enhance the use of socio-economic scenarios, research should demonstrate the benefits of scenario approaches in practice (Carter and White 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainties in Arctic Socio-economic Scenarios

Haavisto

Pilli-Sihvola

Harjanne

2017

The Interconnected Arctic — UArctic Congress 2016

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Scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts, but explore a range of possible futures. Socio-economic scenarios enable the consideration of different uncertainties related to the future and may improve decision-making by enabling the development and analysis of robust decisions. The development of socioeconomic scenarios in the Arctic has been a fairly popular topic for scenario analyses. This study reviews ten selected socio-economic scenarios developed for the Arctic region that differ in structure and geographic focus. The analysis shows that the key uncertainties are fairly similar across the different scenarios. The key uncertainties are mainly related to governance or management and natural resources, but recently the uncertainty and importance of political factors have risen. Climate change is included in all scenarios, but its contribution to the future development of the region and its perceived uncertainty varies depending on the scenario.

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A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

Cited by 316 publications

References 25 publications

Designing agroecological transitions; A review

Designing agroecological transitions; A review

Critical multi-level governance issues of integrated modelling: An example of low-water management in the Adour-Garonne basin (France)

Uncertainties in Arctic Socio-economic Scenarios

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