Uncertainties in Arctic Socio-economic Scenarios

Haavisto, Riina; Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina; Harjanne, Atte

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-57532-2_12

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Methodologically, many scenario exercises focus on two key drivers of change to develop four explorative scenarios. A review of published Arctic socio-economic scenarios showed that they almost always included climate change as one tier and governance or management of natural resources as the second tier, with a shift in recent years towards political factors (Haavisto, Pilli-Sihvola, & Harjanne, 2017). Such a two-dimensional approach comes with important limitations.…”

Section: Multiple Dimensions and Risks Of False Dichotomiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic

et al. 2019

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Participatory scenario methodologies are increasingly used for studying possible future developments in the Arctic. They have the potential to contribute to several high-priority tasks for Arctic research, such as integration of indigenous and local knowledge in futures studies, providing a platform for activating Arctic youth in shaping their futures, identifying Arctic-relevant indicators for sustainable development, and supporting decision-making towards sustainable futures. Yet, to achieve this potential, several methodological challenges need to be addressed. These include attention to whose voices are amplified or silenced in participatory research practices, with special attention to diversification and the engagement of youth. Given the historic and potential future role of disruptive events for Arctic development trajectories, methods are needed in participatory scenario exercises to include attention to the dynamics and consequences of such events and regime shifts. Participatory scenarios can also be further improved through approaches that effectively combine qualitative and quantitative information. Finally, there is a need for systematic studies of how the results of scenario exercises influence decision-making processes. This article elaborates on ways in which attention to these aspects can help make scenarios more robust for assessing a diversity of potential Arctic futures in times of rapid environmental and social change.

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Section: Multiple Dimensions and Risks Of False Dichotomiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic

et al. 2019

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“…In addition, the improvement of Arctic weather and sea ice forecasting services has gained a lot of attention since the Year of Polar Prediction 41 . The strong seasonal and inter-annual sea ice variability around Svalbard in parallel with increasing maritime activities has a demand-pull effect on achieving the need for accurate and reliable sea ice services 42 , 43 . End-users operating around Svalbard emphasize the need for publicly accessible ice charts to be available daily, even more so when sailing in the north and east of the archipelago.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea ice variability and maritime activity around Svalbard in the period 2012–2019

Stocker

Renner

Knol-Kauffman

2020

Sci Rep

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Climate change is strongly impacting the Arctic environment, leading to rapid sea ice loss. In some sectors, the retreating ice edge is perceived as an opportunity to expand and develop economic activities. Previous studies show this development in the Canadian and Russian Arctic. This paper examines mobility patterns of cruise ships and fishing vessels around Svalbard, a major hotspot of maritime activity and retreating sea ice cover, in relation to sea ice variability between August 2012 and September 2019. The results show a slight overall increase in fisheries and cruise activity, as well as remarkable trends of stretching operational seasons and expanding navigational areas in these sectors. Overall increasing activity and changing mobility patterns provoke a discussion about the implications for safe navigation and sustainable management, thus raising issues of high pan-Arctic relevance.

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China’s rise and the Arctic region up to 2049 – three scenarios for regional futures in an era of climate change and power transition

Kauppila

Kopra

2022

The Polar Journal

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Uncertainties in Arctic Socio-economic Scenarios

Cited by 3 publications

References 12 publications

Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic

Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic

Sea ice variability and maritime activity around Svalbard in the period 2012–2019

China’s rise and the Arctic region up to 2049 – three scenarios for regional futures in an era of climate change and power transition

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