No abstract

Abstract. Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( >  800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene ( ∼  50  Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4 ×  CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP – the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

The global atmospheric circulation transports energy from the equatorial regions to higher latitudes through a poleward flow of high-energy and -entropy parcels and an equatorward flow of air with lower energy and entropy content. Because of its turbulent nature, this circulation can only be described in some averaged sense. Here, we show that the total mass transport by the circulation is twice as large when averaged on moist isentropes than when averaged on dry isentropes. The additional mass transport on moist isentropes corresponds to a poleward flow of warm moist air near Earth's surface that rises into the upper troposphere within mid-latitudes and accounts for up to half of the air in the upper troposphere in polar regions.

Shifts in the latitude of the intertropical convergence zone-a region of intense tropical rainfall-have often been explained through changes in the atmospheric energy budget, specifically through theories that tie rainfall to meridional energy fluxes. These quantitative theories can explain shifts in the zonal mean, but often have limited relevance for regional climate shifts, such as a period of enhanced precipitation over Saharan Africa during the mid Holocene. Here we present a theory for regional tropical rainfall shifts that utilizes both zonal and meridional energy fluxes. We first identify a qualitative link between zonal and meridional energy fluxes and rainfall variations associated with the seasonal cycle and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. We then develop a quantitative theory based on these fluxes that relates atmospheric energy transport to tropical rainfall. When applied to the orbital configuration of the mid Holocene, our theory predicts continental rainfall shifts over Africa and Southeast Asia that are consistent with complex model simulations. However, the predicted rainfall over the Sahara is not sufficient to sustain vegetation at a level seen in the palaeo record, which instead requires an additional large energy source such as that due to reductions in Saharan surface albedo. We thus conclude that additional feedbacks, such as those involving changes in vegetation or soil type, are required to explain changes in rainfall over Africa during the mid Holocene.

Tropical cyclones instigate an isolated blast of vigorous mixing in the upper tropical oceans, stirring warm surface water with cooler water in the thermocline. Previous work suggests that the frequency, intensity, and lifetime of these storms may be functions of the climate state, implying that transient tropical mixing could have been stronger during warmer equable climates with higher concentrations of carbon dioxide. Stronger mixing of the tropical oceans can force the oceans' meridional heat flux to increase, cooling tropical latitudes while warming higher ones. This response differs significantly from previous modeling studies of equable climates that used static mixing; coupling mixing to climate changes the dynamic response. A parameterization of mixing from tropical cyclones is developed, and including it leads to a cooling of tropical oceans and a warming of subtropical waters compared with control cases with fixed mixing. The mixing penetration depth regulates the magnitude of the response.