Global Cooling During the Eocene-Oligocene www.sciencemag.org (this information is current as of February 27, 2009 ):The following resources related to this article are available online at

& the Expedition 302 Scientists †The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum, ,55 million years ago, was a brief period of widespread, extreme climatic warming [1][2][3] , that was associated with massive atmospheric greenhouse gas input 4 . Although aspects of the resulting environmental changes are well documented at low latitudes, no data were available to quantify simultaneous changes in the Arctic region. Here we identify the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum in a marine sedimentary sequence obtained during the Arctic Coring Expedition 5 . We show that sea surface temperatures near the North Pole increased from ,18 8C to over 23 8C during this event. Such warm values imply the absence of ice and thus exclude the influence of ice-albedo feedbacks on this Arctic warming. At the same time, sea level rose while anoxic and euxinic conditions developed in the ocean's bottom waters and photic zone, respectively. Increasing temperature and sea level match expectations based on palaeoclimate model simulations 6 , but the absolute polar temperatures that we derive before, during and after the event are more than 10 8C warmer than those model-predicted. This suggests that higher-than-modern greenhouse gas concentrations must have operated in conjunction with other feedback mechanisms-perhaps polar stratospheric clouds 7 or hurricane-induced ocean mixing 8 -to amplify early Palaeogene polar temperatures.

Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wetbulb temperature T W , is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. T W never exceeds 31°C. Any exceedence of 35°C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7°C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11-12°C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12°C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record.climate impacts | global warming | mammalian physiology | paleoclimate

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The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum represents a period of rapid, extreme global warming 55 million years ago, superimposed on an already warm world. This warming is associated with a severe shoaling of the ocean calcite compensation depth and a >2.5 per mil negative carbon isotope excursion in marine and soil carbonates. Together these observations indicate a massive release of 13C-depleted carbon and greenhouse-gas-induced warming. Recently, sediments were recovered from the central Arctic Ocean, providing the first opportunity to evaluate the environmental response at the North Pole at this time. Here we present stable hydrogen and carbon isotope measurements of terrestrial-plant- and aquatic-derived n-alkanes that record changes in hydrology, including surface water salinity and precipitation, and the global carbon cycle. Hydrogen isotope records are interpreted as documenting decreased rainout during moisture transport from lower latitudes and increased moisture delivery to the Arctic at the onset of the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum, consistent with predictions of poleward storm track migrations during global warming. The terrestrial-plant carbon isotope excursion (about -4.5 to -6 per mil) is substantially larger than those of marine carbonates. Previously, this offset was explained by the physiological response of plants to increases in surface humidity. But this mechanism is not an effective explanation in this wet Arctic setting, leading us to hypothesize that the true magnitude of the excursion--and associated carbon input--was greater than originally surmised. Greater carbon release and strong hydrological cycle feedbacks may help explain the maintenance of this unprecedented warmth.

Near the Eocene's close (∼34 million years ago), the climate system underwent one of the largest shifts in Earth's history: Antarctic terrestrial ice sheets suddenly grew and ocean productivity patterns changed. Previous studies conjectured that poleward penetration of warm, subtropical currents, the East Australian Current (EAC) in particular, caused Eocene Antarctic warmth. Late Eocene opening of an ocean gateway between Australia and Antarctica was conjectured to have disrupted the EAC, cooled Antarctica, and allowed ice sheets to develop. Here we reconstruct Eocene paleoceanographic circulation in the Tasmanian region, using (1) biogeographical distributions of phytoplankton, including data from recently drilled Ocean Drilling Program Leg 189 sites and (2) fully coupled climate model simulations. We find that the EAC did not penetrate to high latitudes and ocean heat transport in the region was not greater than modern. Our results do not support changes in “thermal isolation” as the primary driver of the Eocene‐Oligocene climatic transition.

Earth's modern climate, characterized by polar ice sheets and large equator-to-pole temperature gradients, is rooted in environmental changes that promoted Antarctic glaciation ~33.7 million years ago. Onset of Antarctic glaciation reflects a critical tipping point for Earth's climate and provides a framework for investigating the role of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) during major climatic change. Previously published records of alkenone-based CO(2) from high- and low-latitude ocean localities suggested that CO(2) increased during glaciation, in contradiction to theory. Here, we further investigate alkenone records and demonstrate that Antarctic and subantarctic data overestimate atmospheric CO(2) levels, biasing long-term trends. Our results show that CO(2) declined before and during Antarctic glaciation and support a substantial CO(2) decrease as the primary agent forcing Antarctic glaciation, consistent with model-derived CO(2) thresholds.

The early Eocene (~55 to 50 Ma) is a time period which has been explored in a large number of modelling and data studies. Here, using an ensemble of previously published model results, making up "EoMIP" – the Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project – and syntheses of early Eocene terrestrial and sea surface temperature data, we present a self-consistent inter-model and model–data comparison. This shows that the previous modelling studies exhibit a very wide inter-model variability, but that at high CO2, there is good agreement between models and data for this period, particularly if possible seasonal biases in some of the proxies are considered. An energy balance analysis explores the reasons for the differences between the model results, and suggests that differences in surface albedo feedbacks, water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, and prescribed aerosol loading are the dominant cause for the different results seen in the models, rather than inconsistencies in other prescribed boundary conditions or differences in cloud feedbacks. The CO2 level which would give optimal early Eocene model–data agreement, based on those models which have carried out simulations with more than one CO2 level, is in the range of 2500 ppmv to 6500 ppmv. Given the spread of model results, tighter bounds on proxy estimates of atmospheric CO2 and temperature during this time period will allow a quantitative assessment of the skill of the models at simulating warm climates. If it is the case that a model which gives a good simulation of the Eocene will also give a good simulation of the future, then such an assessment could be used to produce metrics for weighting future climate predictions