The Global Atmospheric Circulation on Moist Isentropes

Pauluis, Olivier; Czaja, Arnaud; Korty, Robert

doi:10.1126/science.1159649

Cited by 138 publications

(138 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…1F is arguable. However, the link of T W ðmaxÞ to tropical temperatures is a plausible consequence of the dynamical links between air in the tropics and aloft in midlatitudes (25), and the polar amplification of warming predicted here compares reasonably to that observed over the twentieth century. Thus, the 0.75 factor obtained here should not be too far off.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 63%

An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress

Sherwood

Huber

2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

847

647

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Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wetbulb temperature T W , is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. T W never exceeds 31°C. Any exceedence of 35°C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7°C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11-12°C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12°C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record.climate impacts | global warming | mammalian physiology | paleoclimate

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 63%

An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress

Sherwood

Huber

2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

847

647

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“…of extratropical moist convection on atmospheric dynamics (Korty and Schneider, 2007;Pauluis et al, 2008).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This hypothesis is encouraged by the studies mentioned in the previous paragraph, but is also motivated by the recent suggestion that moist convection plays a role in setting the thermal stratification of the extratropical atmosphere (Juckes, 2000;Korty and Schneider, 2007;Pauluis et al, 2008). Korty and Schneider (2007) showed convincing evidence that neutrality to moist convection is often observed over the extratropical oceans in winter, and it is the purpose of this note to assess whether this observation allows us to link surface ocean conditions to atmospheric lapse rates, maybe up to the tropopause level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new mechanism for ocean–atmosphere coupling in midlatitudes

Czaja¹,

Blunt²

2011

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The role of moist convection in 'transferring' upward surface ocean conditions throughout the troposphere is studied using reanalysis data for the extratropical Northern and Southern Hemispheres in winter. It is found that conditions for the development of a convective air column from the sea surface to the tropopause are met frequently over all major western boundary currents and their extension in the oceanic interior (sometimes for as much as 50% of the time). These frequent occurrences are shown to be jointly controlled by oceanic advection of warm waters and, on the atmospheric side, the downward displacement of the tropopause associated with synoptic weather systems.Based on these results, it is proposed that the oceans can influence the atmosphere directly through convection in midlatitudes, as is commonly thought to occur in the Tropics. Analysis of the Richardson number R i found at low levels suggests that moist symmetric instability (0 < R i ≤ 1) is a key process involved in linking surface ocean temperatures to atmospheric lapse rates, in addition to standard upright convection. These low R i processes are not currently parametrized in climate models, which raises the possibility that the extratropical oceanic influence on climate might be underestimated in the current generation of models. Copyright c 2011 Royal Meteorological Society Key Words: convection; air-sea interactions; midlatitude climate variability

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“…Other work has sorted variables in ways other than by geography: one such example is that of Bony et al (2004), which uses a framework based on the large-scale atmospheric circulation to define a series of dynamical regimes responding to different values of vertical velocity (ω). In addition, mass flux traditionally has been examined on pressure levels, but also within dry (Held and Schneider, 1999) and moist isentropic layers (Pauluis et al, 2008), in an attempt to capture a more Lagrangian description of the circulation. In any study of atmospheric heat transport, moist static energy is the natural variable to focus on (section 2.1).…”

Section: Framework Of Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Deconstructing the Hadley cell heat transport

Heaviside

Czaja

2012

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The mechanisms responsible for poleward atmospheric heat transport at low latitudes are examined in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset. Deep meridional overturning circulations are found in regions experiencing frequent convection (i.e. the Indo-Pacific 'warm pool') and it is suggested that these are the primary reason why atmospheric heat transport seems dominated by axisymmetric motions or 'Hadley cell heat transport'. In contrast, the more complex distribution of meridional mass transport by the circulations over the 'cold tongue' regions (such as the eastern Atlantic area) and the presence of a pronounced minimum in moist static energy at mid-levels constrain these regions to contribute little to poleward heat transport year round. Regions experiencing frequent convection do not, however, account for all the annual mean poleward atmospheric heat transport. At the Equator, an annual net southward transport of heat of about 0.4 PW (1 PW = 10 15 W) is found, but the deep overturning cells found in the most convectively active regions contribute only 25% of this. This small contribution of ∼0.1 PW is understood to reflect a seasonal cancellation between large (∼1 PW) northward and southward heat transports in boreal winter and summer respectively. During December-February, most of the cross-equatorial heat transport is attributable to the convective regions, whereas in June-August, only half is attributable to these regions. In this season, there is a significant amount of heat transport by the strong Somali jet associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Rather than attributing the net southward crossequatorial heat transport to asymmetries in the climatology associated with the northerly position of the intertropical convection zones throughout the year over the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, our diagnostics suggest that the Somali jet is a significant contributor to the annual net southward atmospheric heat transport at the Equator.

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The Global Atmospheric Circulation on Moist Isentropes

Cited by 138 publications

References 15 publications

An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress

An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress

A new mechanism for ocean–atmosphere coupling in midlatitudes

Deconstructing the Hadley cell heat transport

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