Abstract. Gene flow is a key factor in the spatial genetic structure in spatially distributed species. Evolutionary biologists interested in microevolutionary processess and conservation biologists interested in the impact of landscape change require a method that measures the real time process of gene movement. We present a novel two-generation (parent-offspring) approach to the study of genetic structure (TwoGener) that allows us to quantify heterogeneity among the male gamete pools sampled by maternal trees scattered across the landscape and to estimate mean pollination distance and effective neighborhood size. First, we describe the model's elements: genetic distance matrices to estimate intergametic distances, molecular analysis of variance to determine whether pollen profiles differ among mothers, and optimal sampling considerations. Second, we evaluate the model's effectiveness by simulating spatially distributed populations. Spatial heterogeneity in male gametes can be estimated by ⌽ FT , a male gametic analogue of Wright's F ST and an inverse function of mean pollination distance. We illustrate TwoGener in cases where the male gamete can be categorically or ambiguously determined. This approach does not require the high level of genetic resolution needed by parentage analysis, but the ambiguous case is vulnerable to bias in the absence of adequate genetic resolution. Finally, we apply TwoGener to an empirical study of Quercus alba in Missouri Ozark forests. We find that ⌽ FT ϭ 0.06, translating into about eight effective pollen donors per female and an effective pollination neighborhood as a circle of radius about 17 m. Effective pollen movement in Q. alba is more restricted than previously realized, even though pollen is capable of moving large distances. This case study illustrates that, with a modest investment in field survey and laboratory analysis, the TwoGener approach permits inferences about landscape-level gene movements.

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions.

Dissecting components of population-level variation in seed production and the evolution of masting behavior. -Oikos 102: 581-591.Mast-fruiting or masting behavior is the cumulative result of the reproductive patterns of individuals within a population and thus involves components of individual variability, between-individual synchrony, and endogenous cycles of temporal autocorrelation. Extending prior work by Herrera, we explore the interrelationships of these components using data on individual seed production in 59 populations of plants from 24 species spanning a large range of annual variability, from species exhibiting strong masting to others with little annual variability in seed production. Estimates of population and individual variability were not biased by sample size or average overall seed production when based on untransformed seed production values, but these values declined as log-transformed seed production increased. Population variability was more strongly correlated with individual variability (r = 0.86) than individual synchrony (r = 0.73). These latter two components were also significantly correlated (r =0.45), but randomizations confirm that they need not covary closely. Thus, selection can act separately on inter-annual variability and between-individual synchrony. We illustrate the potential for such fine-tuned selection on seed production patterns by discussing several examples and by demonstrating significant differences in components of population-level variation in seed production among species related to their life-history.

We used a rapid assessment to survey American pika (Ochotona princeps) populations and documented 420 pika site occurrences in southwestern U.S.A. These included 329 sites from the Sierra Nevada (SN), California; 67 from six southwestern Great Basin (swGB) ranges, California and Nevada; 16 from three central Great Basin ranges, Nevada; and 8 from the central Oregon Cascades. Of these, 67% were currently occupied, 27% modern (indirectly scored active), and 6% old. Sites were grouped into 148 demes, 88 regions, and 11 mountain ranges. Current elevations ranged from 1645 m (1827 m excluding Oregon) to 3887 m, extending the lower elevational range of the species at the study latitude. Sites were distributed on all slope aspects with a preference for north to easterly aspects, and without preference for substrate. Rock-ice-feature (RIF) till, notably rock-glacier and boulder-stream landforms, accounted for 83% of the sites. Climatic relationships from the PRISM model for the SN and swGB sites showed wide tolerance, with average precipitation 910 mm, average minimum temperature 23.9 uC, and average maximum temperature 8.7 uC. Average minimum temperatures for old sites were not significantly different from recent sites, whereas average maximum temperatures were significantly higher in old sites. Unusual features of RIF landforms make them important refugia for pikas as climates warm. In contrast to studies that document species vulnerability elsewhere, pikas in the SN and swGB appear to be thriving and tolerating a wide range of thermal environments.