I Abstract Spatial synchrony refers to coincident changes in the abundance or other time-varying characteristics of geographically disjunct populations. This phenomenon has been documented in the dynamics of species representing a variety of taxa and ecological roles. Synchrony may arise from three primary mechanisms: (a) dispersal among populations, reducing the size of relatively large populations and increasing relatively small ones; (b) congruent dependence of population dynamics on a synchronous exogenous random factor such as temperature or rainfall, a phenomenon known as the "Moran effect"; and (c) trophic interactions with populations of other species that are themselves spatially synchronous or mobile. Identification of the causes of synchrony is often difficult. In addition to intraspecific synchrony, there are many examples of synchrony among populations of different species, the causes of which are similarly complex and difficult to identify. Furthermore, some populations may exhibit complex spatial dynamics such as spiral waves and chaos. Statistical tests based on phase coherence and/or time-lagged spatial correlation are required to characterize these more complex patterns of spatial dynamics fully.

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There is considerable debate over the relative importance of dispersal and environmental disturbances (the Moran effect) as causes of spatial synchrony in fluctuations of animal populations. If environmental factors generally exhibit high levels of spatial autocorrelation, they may be playing a more important role in synchronizing animal populations than sometimes recognized. Here I examine this issue by analyzing spatial autocorrelation in annual rainfall and mean annual temperatures from sites throughout the world using the database maintained by the Global Historical Climatology Network. Both annual precipitation and mean annual temperatures exhibit high synchrony declining with distance and are statistically significant over large distance, often on a continental scale. In general, synchrony was slightly higher in annual precipitation at short distances, but greater in mean annual temperatures at long distances. No latitudinal gradient in synchrony of either variable was detected. The high overall synchrony observed in these environmental variables combined with a pattern of decline with distance similar to that observed in many animal populations suggest that the Moran effect can potentially play an important role in driving synchrony in a wide variety of ecological phenomena regardless of scale.

Dissecting components of population-level variation in seed production and the evolution of masting behavior. -Oikos 102: 581-591.Mast-fruiting or masting behavior is the cumulative result of the reproductive patterns of individuals within a population and thus involves components of individual variability, between-individual synchrony, and endogenous cycles of temporal autocorrelation. Extending prior work by Herrera, we explore the interrelationships of these components using data on individual seed production in 59 populations of plants from 24 species spanning a large range of annual variability, from species exhibiting strong masting to others with little annual variability in seed production. Estimates of population and individual variability were not biased by sample size or average overall seed production when based on untransformed seed production values, but these values declined as log-transformed seed production increased. Population variability was more strongly correlated with individual variability (r = 0.86) than individual synchrony (r = 0.73). These latter two components were also significantly correlated (r =0.45), but randomizations confirm that they need not covary closely. Thus, selection can act separately on inter-annual variability and between-individual synchrony. We illustrate the potential for such fine-tuned selection on seed production patterns by discussing several examples and by demonstrating significant differences in components of population-level variation in seed production among species related to their life-history.

Masting, the intermittent and synchronized production of seeds, is a common and important phenomenon throughout the plant kingdom. Surprisingly, the proximate mechanisms by which populations of masting plants synchronize their seed sets have been relatively unexplored. We examined how temperature influences the acorn crop of the valley oak Quercus lobata, a masting species common in California, USA, over 33 years in order to assess whether temperature acts directly on acorn crop as a cue or whether it acts instead through intermediate steps indicative of a direct mechanistic connection to acorn production. Compared to several alternatives, the difference in temperature during the spring flowering period over the prior two years (Δt) was a good predictor of annual acorn crop in valley oak, as proposed recently by Kelly et al. Significantly, Δt correlates positively with temperatures the previous April, a likely driver of pollination success in valley oak, and negatively with the previous year's acorn crop, which is in turn negatively correlated with the current year's acorn crop, presumably due to resource limitation. Thus, the success of Δt is not as a cue but rather explained by its close relationship to the proximate drivers that have a direct, mechanistic relationship with acorn crop size.

Summary 1.Ecologists have long been interested in the role of climate in shaping species' ranges, and in recent years, this relationship has taken on greater significance because of the need for accurate predictions of the effects of climate change on wildlife populations. Bioclimatic relationships, however, are potentially complicated by various environmental factors operating at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we test the hypothesis that climatic constraints on bird distributions are modified by species-specific responses to weather, urbanization and use of supplemental food. 2. Our analyses focused on 18 bird species with data from over 3000 sites across the north-eastern United States and adjacent Canadian provinces. We use hierarchal occupancy modelling to quantify the effects of short-term weather variation and surrounding urbanization on food stress and probabilities of detection, and how these fine-scale changes modify the role that climate has on the distributions of wintering bird populations at regional scales. 3. Examining site occupancy and supplemental food use across the study region, we found that average minimum temperature was an important factor limiting bird distributions, supporting the hypothesis that the occupancy of wintering birds is limited by climatic constraints. We found that 15 of 18 species (83%) were more energetically stressed (had a higher likelihood of visiting a feeder station) as minimum temperature declined from the seasonal average. Because we found these patterns in populations that regularly visit supplemental food sites and were likely not food-limited, we suggest that resource availability is less important than climate in constraining wintering bird distributions. Across a winter season, local within-winter extinction probabilities were lower and colonization probabilities higher at warmer sites supporting the role of climate-mediated range shifts. Importantly, however, these relationships were modified by the degree of urbanization and species' abilities to persist in human-modified landscapes. 4. Our results suggest that urbanization and behavioural adaptation can modify the role of climate on bird ranges and should be included in future analyses of range shifts because of climate change.

A tradeoff between growth and reproduction, often inferred from an inverse correlation between these two variables, is a fundamental paradigm of life-history evolution. Oak species provide a unique test of this relationship because different species mature acorns either in the year of pollination or in the year after pollination. This difference allows for an interspecific comparison testing whether the apparent tradeoff is causal or the result of confounding factors influencing growth and reproduction independently. Based on 13 years of data on five California oak species, we found significant negative correlations between radial growth and seed production in the three species that produce acorns the same year in which pollination occurs, but not in two species that mature acorns the year after pollination. Rainfall, which correlates positively with radial growth and correlates negatively with acorn production (based on the year of pollination), appears to be driving this pattern. We conclude that the observed negative correlations are not causal, but rather a consequence of growth and reproduction being dependent, in opposite ways, on environmental conditions. Thus, contrary to the current consensus, growth and reproduction in these species are apparently largely independent of each other. In contrast, tradeoffs between current and future reproduction appear to be much more important in the life-history evolution of these long-lived plants. We also conclude that a negative correlation does not necessarily imply a causal mechanism and should not be used as the only evidence supporting a tradeoff.allocation ͉ cost of reproduction ͉ life-history evolution ͉ reproductive effort ͉ masting