I Abstract Spatial synchrony refers to coincident changes in the abundance or other time-varying characteristics of geographically disjunct populations. This phenomenon has been documented in the dynamics of species representing a variety of taxa and ecological roles. Synchrony may arise from three primary mechanisms: (a) dispersal among populations, reducing the size of relatively large populations and increasing relatively small ones; (b) congruent dependence of population dynamics on a synchronous exogenous random factor such as temperature or rainfall, a phenomenon known as the "Moran effect"; and (c) trophic interactions with populations of other species that are themselves spatially synchronous or mobile. Identification of the causes of synchrony is often difficult. In addition to intraspecific synchrony, there are many examples of synchrony among populations of different species, the causes of which are similarly complex and difficult to identify. Furthermore, some populations may exhibit complex spatial dynamics such as spiral waves and chaos. Statistical tests based on phase coherence and/or time-lagged spatial correlation are required to characterize these more complex patterns of spatial dynamics fully.
There is considerable debate over the relative importance of dispersal and environmental disturbances (the Moran effect) as causes of spatial synchrony in fluctuations of animal populations. If environmental factors generally exhibit high levels of spatial autocorrelation, they may be playing a more important role in synchronizing animal populations than sometimes recognized. Here I examine this issue by analyzing spatial autocorrelation in annual rainfall and mean annual temperatures from sites throughout the world using the database maintained by the Global Historical Climatology Network. Both annual precipitation and mean annual temperatures exhibit high synchrony declining with distance and are statistically significant over large distance, often on a continental scale. In general, synchrony was slightly higher in annual precipitation at short distances, but greater in mean annual temperatures at long distances. No latitudinal gradient in synchrony of either variable was detected. The high overall synchrony observed in these environmental variables combined with a pattern of decline with distance similar to that observed in many animal populations suggest that the Moran effect can potentially play an important role in driving synchrony in a wide variety of ecological phenomena regardless of scale.
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