This publication has been revised to reflect updates made to version 3 of the BehavePlus software, it was originally published as the BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 2.0 User's Guide in June, 2003 The BehavePlus fire modeling system is a program for personal computers that is a collection of mathematical models that describe fire and the fire environment. It is a flexible system that produces tables, graphs, and simple diagrams. It can be used for a multitude of fire management applications including projecting the behavior of an ongoing fire, planning prescribed fire, and training. BehavePlus is the successor to the BEHAVE fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system. Primary modeling capabilities include surface fire spread and intensity, crown fire spread and intensity, safety zone size, size of point source fire, fire containment, spotting distance, crown scorch height, tree mortality, wind adjustment, and probability of ignition. The User's Guide describes operation of the program. Other papers describe the models and application of the system.
An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and twodimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis is used to characterize the seasonal trend in ERC, autocorrelation of residuals, and daily standard deviation and stochastically generate artificial time series of afternoon fuel moisture. Daily wind speed and direction are sampled stochastically from joint probabilities of historical wind speed and direction for the date range of the fire simulation period. Hundreds or thousands of fire growth simulations are then performed using the synthetic fire weather sequences. The performance of these methods is evaluated in terms of the number of ensemble member simulations, one-versus twodimensional fire spread simulations, and comparison with results from 91 fires occurring from 2007 to 2009. Simulations were found to be in consistent agreement with observations, but trends indicate that the ensemble average of simulated fire sizes were consistently larger than actual fires whereas the farthest extent burned by fires was underestimated.
A new decision support tool, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) has been developed to support risk-informed decision-making for individual fires in the United States. WFDSS accesses national weather data and forecasts, fire behavior prediction, economic assessment, smoke management assessment, and landscape databases to efficiently formulate and apply information to the decision making process. Risk-informed decision-making is becoming increasingly important as a means of improving fire management and offers substantial opportunities to benefit natural and community resource protection, management response effectiveness, firefighter resource use and exposure, and, possibly, suppression costs. This paper reviews the development, structure, and function of WFDSS, and how it contributes to increased flexibility and agility in decision making, leading to improved fire management program effectiveness.
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