Analisis data time series menggunakan metode Winter's exponential smoothing dan Pegel's exponential smoothing merupakan analisis data yang dipengaruhi oleh pola data musiman. Winter's exponential smoothing merupakan metode peramalan yang mengasumsikan pola data bersifat trend aditif sedangkan Pegel's exponential smoothing menyajikan sembilan model klasifikasi yang memisahkan faktor trend dan musiman. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperoleh model yang tepat dan hasil peramalan dari data produksi kelapa sawit Provinsi Kalimantan Timur periode Januari 2014 sampai Desember 2017. Hasil peramalan diverifikasi menggunakan metode tracking signal. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model musiman multiplikatif tanpa trend pada metode Pegel's exponential smoothing dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 7,04% memiliki akurasi peramalan yang lebih baik daripada metode yang lainnya. Berdasarkan pemantauan menggunakan tracking signal diperoleh satu hasil peramalan yang bersifat bias. Model musiman multiplikatif tanpa trend dapat digunakan untuk meramalkan 3 bulan ke depan yaitu Januari, Februari dan Maret Tahun 2018. Hasil peramalan 3 bulan ke depan mengalami penurunan secara berturut-turut.
Potential Villages (PODES) provide data on the existence, availability and development of the potential of each government administrative area. In order to make it easier for governments to make policies for a region, it is necessary to group the village and sub-districts. Cluster analysis is an analysis that aims to group objects based on the information that found in the data. One of the cluster analysis methods is the divisive analysis, which is a hierarchical grouping method with a top-down approach, where all objects are placed in one cluster and then sequentially divided into separate groups. This research aim to group villages or sub-districts in Kutai Kartanegara based on the determinants of village backwardness and obtaining the silhouette coefficient value from the optimal cluster analysis using the divisive analysis algorithm. The data used is the 2018 PODES data in Kutai Kartanegara and used 15 variables from natural and environmental factors, facilities infrastructure and access factors as well as socio-economic factors of the population. The results of the optimal cluster formed in the grouping of villages or sub-districts in Kutai Kartanegara using the divisive analysis method are 2 clusters. Cluster 1 consisting of 230 villages or sub-districts and cluster 2 consisting of 2 sub-districts. Silhouette coefficient value for data validation from clustering village or sub-districts in Kutai Kartanegara using the divisive analysis method produces 2 clusters is 0,744 which states that the cluster structure formed in this grouping is a strong structure.
The objective of this research is to determine the best time series model for forecasting the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan. Seasonal time series model is applied to the data. The results of this research is the best model for the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan is SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12.
Cluster analysis has the aim of grouping several objects of observation based on the data found in the information to describe the objects and their relationships. The grouping method used in this research is the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) and Subtractive Fuzzy C-Means (SFCM) methods. The two grouping methods were applied to the people's welfare indicator data in 42 regencies/cities on the island of Kalimantan. The purpose of this study was to obtain the results of grouping districts/cities on the island of Kalimantan based on indicators of people's welfare and to obtain the results of a comparison of the FCM and SFCM methods. Based on the results of the analysis, the FCM and SFCM methods yield the same conclusions, so that in this study the FCM and SFCM methods are both good to use in classifying districts/cities on the island of Kalimantan based on people's welfare indicators and produce an optimal cluster of two clusters, namely the first cluster consisting of 10 Regencies/Cities on the island of Kalimantan, while the second cluster consists of 32 districts/cities on the island of Borneo.
ABSTRAK Pegawai Negeri Sipil (PNS) yaitu warga negara Indonesia yang memenuhi syarat tertentu, diangkat sebagai Pegawai ASN secara tetap oleh pejabat pembina kepegawaian untuk menduduki jabatan pemerintahan. Pada proses perimaaan CPNS, terdapat dua tahapan Seleksi yaitu SKD dan SKB. Pada SKD, pemerintah memberlakukan passing grade yang menjadi penentu kelulusan ke tahap SKB. Salah satu jenis tes pada tahap SKD yaitu TIU yang merupakan tes untuk mengukur tingkat intelegensi dalam analisa numerik, verbal, figural, serta kemampuan untuk berpikir logis dan analitis. Tujuan kegiatan pelatihan yaitu memberikan informasi kepada masyarakat umum, khusunya masyarakat yang akan mengikuti tes seleksi SKD CPNS 2021 tentang penggunaan fungsi hitung dasar dan logika dalam mengerjakan soal TIU dengan lebih mudah, cepat dan tepat. Berdasarkan hasil penilaian pada saat pelatihan, peserta dapat menunjukkan adanya peningkatan pemahaman dalam menyelesaikan soal TIU dengan mudah, cepat dan tepat. Hal ini terlihat dari peningkatan nilai skor posttes yang jauh lebih tinggi dibandingkan saat pretes. Kedepannya diharapkan adanya kegiatan lanjutan dengan intensif agar peserta kegiatan dapat terbiasa dalam pemecahan soal dengan cepat. Kata Kunci: ASN; PNS; SKB; SKD; TIU ABSTRACT Civil Servants (PNS) is an Indonesian citizen who meets certain conditions, appointed as an ASN employee regularly by the office of staffing to occupy government positions. In the CPNS acceptance process, there are two stages of selection, namely SKD and SKB. In SKD, the government imposes a passing grade that determines graduation to the SKB stage. One type of test at the SKD stage is TIU which is a test to measure the level of intelligence in numerical analysis, verbal ability, figural ability, and the ability to think logically and analytically. The purpose of the training is to provide information to the general public, especially the public who will take the 2021 SKD CPNS selection test on the use of fundamental calculation functions and logic in working on TIU problems more simply, quickly, and precisely. Based on the yield of the assessment at the time of training, participants can show an increased understanding of solving TIU problems simply, quickly, and precisely. The posttest score is much higher than during pretests. In the future, expected that this training can continue intensive so that participants can get used to solving problems more quickly. Keywords: ASN; PNS; SKB; SKD; TIU
Classification is the process of grouping objects that have the same characteristics into several categories. This study applies a combination of classification algorithms, namely Bootstrap Aggregating K-Nearest Neighbor in credit scoring analysis. The aim is to classify the credit payment status of electronic goods and furniture at PT KB Finansia Multi Finance in 2020 and determine the level of accuracy produced. Credit payment status is grouped into 2 categories, namely smoothly and not smoothly. There are 7 independent variables that are used to describe the characteristics of the debtor, namely age, number of dependents, length of stay, years of service, income, amount of payment, and payment period. The application of the classification algorithm at the credit scoring analysis is expected to assist creditors in making decisions to accept or reject credit applications from prospective debtors. The results showed that the accuracy obtained from the Bootstrap Aggregating K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm with a proportion of 90:10, m=80%, C=73, and K=5 was the best, which was 92.308%.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.