Analisis data time series menggunakan metode Winter's exponential smoothing dan Pegel's exponential smoothing merupakan analisis data yang dipengaruhi oleh pola data musiman. Winter's exponential smoothing merupakan metode peramalan yang mengasumsikan pola data bersifat trend aditif sedangkan Pegel's exponential smoothing menyajikan sembilan model klasifikasi yang memisahkan faktor trend dan musiman. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperoleh model yang tepat dan hasil peramalan dari data produksi kelapa sawit Provinsi Kalimantan Timur periode Januari 2014 sampai Desember 2017. Hasil peramalan diverifikasi menggunakan metode tracking signal. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model musiman multiplikatif tanpa trend pada metode Pegel's exponential smoothing dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 7,04% memiliki akurasi peramalan yang lebih baik daripada metode yang lainnya. Berdasarkan pemantauan menggunakan tracking signal diperoleh satu hasil peramalan yang bersifat bias. Model musiman multiplikatif tanpa trend dapat digunakan untuk meramalkan 3 bulan ke depan yaitu Januari, Februari dan Maret Tahun 2018. Hasil peramalan 3 bulan ke depan mengalami penurunan secara berturut-turut.
Potential Villages (PODES) provide data on the existence, availability and development of the potential of each government administrative area. In order to make it easier for governments to make policies for a region, it is necessary to group the village and sub-districts. Cluster analysis is an analysis that aims to group objects based on the information that found in the data. One of the cluster analysis methods is the divisive analysis, which is a hierarchical grouping method with a top-down approach, where all objects are placed in one cluster and then sequentially divided into separate groups. This research aim to group villages or sub-districts in Kutai Kartanegara based on the determinants of village backwardness and obtaining the silhouette coefficient value from the optimal cluster analysis using the divisive analysis algorithm. The data used is the 2018 PODES data in Kutai Kartanegara and used 15 variables from natural and environmental factors, facilities infrastructure and access factors as well as socio-economic factors of the population. The results of the optimal cluster formed in the grouping of villages or sub-districts in Kutai Kartanegara using the divisive analysis method are 2 clusters. Cluster 1 consisting of 230 villages or sub-districts and cluster 2 consisting of 2 sub-districts. Silhouette coefficient value for data validation from clustering village or sub-districts in Kutai Kartanegara using the divisive analysis method produces 2 clusters is 0,744 which states that the cluster structure formed in this grouping is a strong structure.
Cluster analysis has the aim of grouping several objects of observation based on the data found in the information to describe the objects and their relationships. The grouping method used in this research is the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) and Subtractive Fuzzy C-Means (SFCM) methods. The two grouping methods were applied to the people's welfare indicator data in 42 regencies/cities on the island of Kalimantan. The purpose of this study was to obtain the results of grouping districts/cities on the island of Kalimantan based on indicators of people's welfare and to obtain the results of a comparison of the FCM and SFCM methods. Based on the results of the analysis, the FCM and SFCM methods yield the same conclusions, so that in this study the FCM and SFCM methods are both good to use in classifying districts/cities on the island of Kalimantan based on people's welfare indicators and produce an optimal cluster of two clusters, namely the first cluster consisting of 10 Regencies/Cities on the island of Kalimantan, while the second cluster consists of 32 districts/cities on the island of Borneo.
The objective of this research is to determine the best time series model for forecasting the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan. Seasonal time series model is applied to the data. The results of this research is the best model for the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan is SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12.
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