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Climate change may dramatically affect the distribution and abundance of organisms. With the world's population size expected to increase significantly during the next 100 years, we need to know how climate change might impact our food production systems. In particular, we need estimates of how future climate might alter the distribution of agricultural pests. We used the climate projections from two general circulation models (GCMs) of global climate, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre model (HadCM3), for the A2 and B2 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in conjunction with a previously published bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) to predict the potential changes in distribution and abundance of the swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii, in North America. The BEM in conjunction with either GCM predicted that C. nasturtii would spread from its current initial invasion in southern Ontario and northwestern New York State into the Canadian prairies, northern Canada, and midwestern United States, but the magnitude of risk depended strongly on the GCM and the scenario used. When the CGCM2 projections were used, the BEM predicted an extensive shift in the location of the midges' climatic envelope through most of Ontario, Quebec, and the maritime and prairie provinces by the 2080s. In the United States, C. nasturtii was predicted to spread to all the Great Lake states, into midwestern states as far south as Colorado, and west into Washington State. When the HadCM3 was applied, southern Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Washington State were not as favourable for C. nasturtii by the 2080s. Indeed, when used with the HadCM3 climate projections, the BEM predicted the virtual disappearance of 'very favourable' regions for C. nasturtii. The CGCM2 projections generally caused the BEM to predict a small increase in the mean number of midge generations throughout the course of the century, whereas, the HadCM3 projections resulted in roughly the same mean number of generations but decreased variance. Predictions of the likely potential of C. nasturtii spatial spread are thus strongly dependent on the source of climate projections. This study illustrates the importance of using multiple GCMs in combination with multiple scenarios when studying the potential for spatial spread of an organism in response to climate change.

BackgroundSelection of pesticides with small ecological footprints is a key factor in developing sustainable agricultural systems. Policy guiding the selection of pesticides often emphasizes natural products and organic-certified pesticides to increase sustainability, because of the prevailing public opinion that natural products are uniformly safer, and thus more environmentally friendly, than synthetic chemicals.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe report the results of a study examining the environmental impact of several new synthetic and certified organic insecticides under consideration as reduced-risk insecticides for soybean aphid (Aphis glycines) control, using established and novel methodologies to directly quantify pesticide impact in terms of biocontrol services. We found that in addition to reduced efficacy against aphids compared to novel synthetic insecticides, organic approved insecticides had a similar or even greater negative impact on several natural enemy species in lab studies, were more detrimental to biological control organisms in field experiments, and had higher Environmental Impact Quotients at field use rates.Conclusions/SignificanceThese data bring into caution the widely held assumption that organic pesticides are more environmentally benign than synthetic ones. All pesticides must be evaluated using an empirically-based risk assessment, because generalizations based on chemical origin do not hold true in all cases.

Abstract-Male coconut rhinoceros beetles, Orycres rhinoceros (L.), produce three sex-specific compounds, ethyl 4-methyloctanoate, ethyl 4-methylheptanoate, and 4-methyloctanoic acid, the first of which is an aggregation pheromone. Synthesis of these compounds involving conjugate addition of organocuprates to ethyl acrylate is reported. In field trapping experiments, (4S)-ethyl 4-methyloctanoate and the racemic mixture were equally attractive and 10 times more effective in attracting beetles than ethyl chrysanthemumate, a previously recommended attractant. Ethyl 4-methylheptanoate was as attractive as ethyl chrysanthemumate and more attractive than 4-methyloctanoic acid, but further studies are required before it can be classed as an aggregation pherornone. Compared to ethyl 4-methyloctanoate alone, combinations of the three male-produced compounds did not increase attraction, whereas addition of freshly rotting oil palm fruit bunches to pheromone-baited traps sjgnificantly enhanced attraction. With increasing dose, captures of O. rhinocerós'increased, but doses of 6, 9, and 18 mg/day were competitive with 30 mg/day lures. Newly designed vane traps were more effective in capturing beetles than were barrier or pitfall traps. Results of this study indicate that there is potential for using ethyl 4-methyloctanoate in operational programs to control O. rhinoceros in oil palm plantations.

In 1996, damage symptoms typical of the swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii (Keiffer), were observed on broccoli, Brassica oleracea L. var. italica (Brassicaceae), crops east of Toronto, Ontario. Early attempts to identify an associated insect larva were unsuccessful, and damage symptoms became mistakenly attributed to nutrient deficiencies (T Clarke, personal communication). Between 1996 and 1999, damaged plants were seen by growers regularly, and resulted in up to 85% loss of marketable yield (T Clarke, personal communication). In June 2000, we initiated investigations at two sites 12 km apart to determine the causal organism of this damage. Both sites were located at farms where cole crops are primarily -gown and from where the first damage reports originated.

Spotted wing drosophila, Drosophila suzukii, is a globally invasive pest of soft-skinned fruit. Females oviposit into ripening fruit and larvae cause direct destruction of tissues. As many plant essential oils are permitted food additives, they may provide a safe means of protecting fruit from D. suzukii infestation in both conventional and organic production systems. Twelve oils and potassium metabisulfite (KMS) were screened in the laboratory as repellents for D. suzukii flies. Most essential oils deterred D. suzukii flies from cotton wicks containing attractive raspberry juice. Peppermint oil was particularly effective, preventing almost all flies from contacting treated wicks and remaining 100% repellent for 6 d post-application. Thyme oil was unique because it caused high male mortality and reduced the number of responding flies compared to other oils. KMS was not found to be repellent to D. suzukii, but may have fumigant properties, particularly at high concentrations. Peppermint oil appears to be the best candidate for field testing to determine the effectiveness and feasibility of using essential oils as part of a push-pull management strategy against D. suzukii. This is the first time that essential oils have been evaluated and proven effective in preventing fruit-infesting flies from contacting attractive stimuli.