The purpose of the study is to establish scientific rational for the use of the foresight methodology in the strategic planning of rural development. The scientific novelty of the study is determined by the development of an algorithm for strategic planning of rural development based on the foresight methodology and by the formation of a set of practical recommendations for the use of foresight tools at the municipal level of management in rural areas. The paper states that modern foresight methodology is quite flexible and multifaceted. It can be widely applied at different hierarchical levels of management. In our research, we consistently analyzed foresight projects and programs used in the rural management and development forecasting. The use of a systematic approach in combination with foresight technologies allows developing strategic plans for the rural areas development from the perspective of improvement of their economic and social component. The research presents the foresight algorithm of the rural development strategic planning and its implementation mechanism at the municipal level. The main components of the foresight testing procedure of the rural areas economic development were determined on the example of such a classic agricultural region of the Russian Federation as the Republic of Bashkortostan. The results of a comprehensive foresight analysis of alternative scenarios of the rural development have been formed. We summarized that the foresight technologies should be used as a system tool for the formation and implementation of the strategy of the sustainable rural areas development. The main results of the study include summarizing the experience of foresight studies on the rural areas development; design of an algorithm of strategic planning of the rural areas development based on the foresight methodology; the formation of alternative scenarios of the rural areas development at the regional level.
Background and Aim: There is a lack of reliable data in agribusiness regarding the economic efficiency of horse breeding, and this limits its further development. The purpose of this study was to create rational parameters for the development of productive horse breeding as an effective agricultural business, in particular, in relation to farms. Materials and Methods: The methods of investigation used were induction and deduction, as well as analytical, statistical, and economic-mathematical analysis. We also used the dynamics of time series, CVP analysis, direct costing, and microeconomic analysis. Data were taken from the Russian Federation's official statistics on animal husbandry as well as closed (commercial) data of agricultural enterprises from our study region. Results: Horse ownership in the Republic of Bashkortostan is higher than in the rest of Russia with about 9% of the total number of horses in Russia. We found that landowners need one hectare of arable land to ensure profit and that the highest economic income occurs on farms specializing in kumis production. The production of kumis under intensive farming is less profitable than with free-range horses kept in pastures. Family farms need a large amount of arable land with natural foliage to balance space and profit. Conclusion: Successful implementation of these parameters will make it possible to turn agriculture into successful horse breeding businesses. The expected volume of agricultural production may be approximately 9-11 thousand US dollars per employee.
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The study aims to scientifically substantiate the application of the scenario approach in predicting the development of the agri-food sector in rural areas. The conceptual novelty of the study is that it develops a scenario forecasting algorithm for the development of the agri-food sector of rural areas in the digital economy. It also clarifies methodological approaches and recommendations for forecasting production volumes of certain agri-food products at the zonal level. The paper shows that digitalization is one of the critical factors that directly ensure an increase in agribusiness efficiency in the current conditions in agriculture. An assessment of the impact of digital transformation processes on the activities of agricultural producers is given, and the advantages of using modern digital technologies in the agricultural sector are highlighted. Furthermore, the results of scenario forecasting of production volumes of agri-food products by farms of all categories are presented in the example of the non-black soil zone of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The study’s preliminary results are as follows: the world experience in scientific research on the use of digital technologies in the activities of agricultural producers was generalized.
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