The future availability of rare earth elements (REEs) is of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions, environmentally unsustainable mining practices, and rapid demand growth. We present an evaluation of potential future demand scenarios for REEs with a focus on the issue of comining. Many assumptions were made to simplify the analysis, but the scenarios identify some key variables that could affect future rare earth markets and market behavior. Increased use of wind energy and electric vehicles are key elements of a more sustainable future. However, since present technologies for electric vehicles and wind turbines rely heavily on dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium (Nd), in rare-earth magnets, future adoption of these technologies may result in large and disproportionate increases in the demand for these two elements. For this study, upper and lower bound usage projections for REE in these applications were developed to evaluate the state of future REE supply availability. In the absence of efficient reuse and recycling or the development of technologies which use lower amounts of Dy and Nd, following a path consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) at 450 ppm may lead to an increase of more than 700% and 2600% for Nd and Dy, respectively, over the next 25 years if the present REE needs in automotive and wind applications are representative of future needs.

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Many authors suggest that market forces are inadequate to successfully manage the problems of resource availability and use. The fundamental question is whether these inadequacies are intrinsic to the market or if they arise from a failure of firms to detect and respond to subtle market signals. This paper explores the latter by describing (1) mechanisms that can limit materials availability, (2) effects of such limits on the firm, (3) preliminary metrics to diagnose these risks, and (4) strategies to reduce a firm's risk exposure. Case analyses of two materials systems are used to suggest that private firm interests, when properly informed, can motivate strategies that drive toward sustainable materials use. These strategies include (1) improving production efficiency, (2) developing technology to use more sustainable substitute materials, and (3) facilitating a more effective materials recycling infrastructure.