Sustained growth in lithium-ion battery (LIB) demand within the transportation sector (and the electricity sector) motivates detailed investigations of whether future raw materials supply will reconcile with resulting material requirements for these batteries. We track the metal content associated with compounds used in LIBs. We find that most of the key constituents, including manganese, nickel, and natural graphite, have sufficient supply to meet the anticipated increase in demand for LIBs. There may be challenges in rapidly scaling the use of materials associated with lithium and cobalt in the short term. Due to long battery lifetimes and multiple end uses, recycling is unlikely to provide significant short-term supply. There are risks associated with the geopolitical concentrations of these elements, particularly for cobalt. The lessons revealed in this work can be relevant to other industries in which the rapid growth of a materials-dependent technology disrupts the global supply of those materials.

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Purpose The purpose of this study was to analyze the environmental trade-offs of cascading reuse of electric vehicle (EV) lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in stationary energy storage at automotive end-of-life. Methods Two systems were jointly analyzed to address the consideration of stakeholder groups corresponding to both first (EV) and second life (stationary energy storage) battery applications. The environmental feasibility criterion was defined by an equivalent-functionality lead-acid (PbA) battery. A critical methodological challenge addressed was the allocation of environmental impacts associated with producing LIBs across the EV and stationary use systems. The model also tested sensitivity to parameters such as the fraction of battery cells viable for reuse, service life of refurbished cells, and PbA battery efficiency. Results and discussion From the perspective of EV applications, cascading reuse of an LIB in stationary energy storage can reduce net cumulative energy demand and global warming potential by 15 % under conservative estimates and by as much as 70 % in ideal refurbishment and reuse conditions. When post-EV LIB cells were compared directly to a new PbA system for stationary energy storage, the reused cells generally had lower environmental impacts, except in scenarios where very few of the initial battery cells and modules could be reused and where reliability was low (e.g., life span of 1 year or less) in the secondary application. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that EV LIB reuse in stationary application has the potential for dual benefit-both from the perspective of offsetting initial manufacturing impacts by extending battery life span as well as avoiding production and use of a less-efficient PbA system. It is concluded that reuse decisions and diversion of EV LIBs toward suitable stationary applications can be based on life cycle centric studies. However, technical feasibility of these systems must still be evaluated, particularly with respect to the ability to rapidly analyze the reliability of EV LIB cells, modules, or packs for refurbishment and reuse in secondary applications.

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Lithium-ion battery demand, particularly for electric vehicles, is projected to increase by over 300% throughout the next decade. With these expected increases in demand, cobalt (Co)-dependent technologies face the risk of significant impact from supply concentration and mining limitations in the short term. Increased extraction and secondary recovery form the basis of modeling scenarios that examine implications on Co supply to 2030. Demand for Co is estimated to range from 235 to 430 ktonnes in 2030. This upper bound on Co demand in 2030 corresponds to 280% of world refinery capacity in 2016. Supply from scheduled and unscheduled production as well as secondary production is estimated to range from 320 to 460 ktonnes. Our analysis suggests the following: (1) Co price will remain relatively stable in the short term, given that this range suggests even a supply surplus, (2) future Co supply will become more diversified geographically and mined more as a byproduct of nickel (Ni) over this period, and (3) for this demand to be met, attention should be paid to sustained investments in refined supply of Co and secondary recovery.

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