Evaluating Rare Earth Element Availability: A Case with Revolutionary Demand from Clean Technologies

Abstract

The future availability of rare earth elements (REEs) is of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions, environmentally unsustainable mining practices, and rapid demand growth. We present an evaluation of potential future demand scenarios for REEs with a focus on the issue of comining. Many assumptions were made to simplify the analysis, but the scenarios identify some key variables that could affect future rare earth markets and market behavior. Increased use of wind energy and electric vehicles are key elements of a more sustainable future. However, since present technologies for electric vehicles and wind turbines rely heavily on dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium (Nd), in rare-earth magnets, future adoption of these technologies may result in large and disproportionate increases in the demand for these two elements. For this study, upper and lower bound usage projections for REE in these applications were developed to evaluate the state of future REE supply availability. In the absence of efficient reuse and recycling or the development of technologies which use lower amounts of Dy and Nd, following a path consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) at 450 ppm may lead to an increase of more than 700% and 2600% for Nd and Dy, respectively, over the next 25 years if the present REE needs in automotive and wind applications are representative of future needs.

Criticality of metals and metalloids

“…A full uncertainty analysis is performed as part of focused metal analyses, as described in SI Appendix, section 5. The methodology responds to recommendations of others (5,10,14) for optimum criticality assessment. Extensive details are given in previous publications (18,(22)(23)(24) and in SI Appendix.…”

“…A decade later, a civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo caused a significant, if temporary, decrease in the supply of cobalt (5), indicating that the Paley Report's concerns might indeed have merit. More recently, a decrease in exports of rare earth elements by China resulted in a variety of technological disruptions (5,6). The result has been numerous calls in recent years (e.g., refs.…”

Criticality Research in the Materials Community

“…3,4 For example, the most recent Department of Defense Strategic and Critical Materials report per the Strategic and Critical Materials Stockpiling Act uses material consumption, production, and projected future demand to determine the severity of material criticality. Similarly, in previous literature 1,[5][6][7][8][9] the material availability is determined primarily by physical scarcity. Scarcity research calculates static metrics, such as depletion time (a measure of how long known reserves will last, given current levels of extraction); although it is informative and useful, it can provide only limited resolution of the real and complex issues at hand.…”

“…This caused massive spikes in the commodity price of cobalt, which resulted in speculation, government stockpiling, and massive disruption to firms in the semiconductor industry. 1 Additionally, the introduction of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and its various policies (Toxic Substances Act, Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, etc.) changed the way many materials could be used.…”

Towards a dynamic assessment of raw materials criticality: Linking agent-based demand — With material flow supply modelling approaches

“…China's REEs export limitation or production dominance (Yu, 2010)). First approaches to consider criticality with dynamic models have been reported for PGMs (Alonso et al, 2008) and REEs (Alonso et al, 2012). Recently, Du and Graedel (2011) quantified the stocks and flows of REEs from 1995 -2007.…”