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Finite element analysis of failed slope of the Surabhi Resort landslide located in the Mussoorie township, Garhwal Himalaya has been carried out using shear strength reduction technique. Two slope models viz. debris and rock mass were taken into consideration in this study and have been analysed for possible failure of slope in future. Critical strength reduction factor (SRF) for the failed slope is observed to be 0.28 and 0.83 for the debris and rock mass model, respectively. A low SRF value of the slope revealed significant progressive displacement in the zone of detachment. This has also been evidenced in the form of cracks in the building of Surabhi Resort and presence of subsidence zones in the Mussoorie International School. These results are consistent with the study carried out by other workers using different approach.

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Abstract. Prediction of potential landslide damming has been a difficult process owing to uncertainties related to landslide volume, resultant dam volume, entrainment, valley configuration, river discharge, material composition, friction, and turbulence associated with the material. In this study instability pattern of landslides, parametric uncertainty, geomorphic indices, post-failure run-out predictions, and spatio-temporal pattern of rainfall and earthquake is explored using Satluj valley, North-West (NW) Himalaya as a case study area to predict the potential landslide damming sites. The study area witnessed landslide damming in the past and incurred $ ~ 30 M loss and 350 lives in the last four decades due to such processes. Forty-four active landslides in the study area that cover a total ~ 4.81 ± 0.05 × 106 m2 area and ~ 34.1 ± 9.2 × 106 m3 volume are evaluated in the study to identify those that may result in potential landslide damming. Out of forty-four, five landslides covering the volume of ~ 26.3 ± 6.7 × 106 m3 are observed to form potential landslide dams. Spatio-temporal varying patterns of rainfall in recent years enhance the possibility of landslide triggering and hence potential damming. These landslides also resulted in 24.8 ± 2.7 m to 39.8 ± 4.0 m high material flow in run-out predictions.

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