In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.extreme precipitation events | climate change | aquatic ecology | Microcystis sp. | Anabaena sp.

Abstract-The triazine herbicide atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropyl-amino-s-triazine) is one of the most used pesticides in North America. Atrazine is principally used for control of certain annual broadleaf and grass weeds, primarily in corn but also in sorghum, sugarcane, and, to a lesser extent, other crops and landscaping. Atrazine is found in many surface and ground waters in North America, and aquatic ecological effects are a possible concern for the regulatory and regulated communities. To address these concerns an expert panel (the Panel) was convened to conduct a comprehensive aquatic ecological risk assessment. This assessment was based on several newly suggested procedures and included exposure and hazard subcomponents as well as the overall risk assessment. The Panel determined that use of probabilistic risk assessment techniques was appropriate. Here, the results of this assessment are presented as a case study for these techniques. The environmental exposure assessment concentrated on monitoring data from Midwestern watersheds, the area of greatest atrazine use in North America. This analysis revealed that atrazine concentrations rarely exceed 20 g/L in rivers and streams that were the main focus of the aquatic ecological risk assessment. Following storm runoff, biota in lower-order streams may be exposed to pulses of atrazine greater than 20 g/L, but these exposures are short-lived. The assessment also considered exposures in lakes and reservoirs. The principal data set was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, which monitored residues in 76 Midwestern reservoirs in 11 states in 1992-1993. Residue concentrations in some reservoirs were similar to those in streams but persisted longer. Atrazine residues were widespread in reservoirs (92% occurrence), and the 90th percentile of this exposure distribution for early June to July was about 5 g/L. Mathematical simulation models of chemical fate were used to generalize the exposure analysis to other sites and to assess the potential effects of reduction in the application rates. Models were evaluated, modified, and calibrated against available monitoring data to validate that these models could predict atrazine runoff. PRZM-2 overpredicted atrazine concentrations by about an order of magnitude, whereas GLEAMS underpredicted by a factor of 2 to 5. Thus, exposure models were not used to extrapolate to other regions of atrazine use in this assessment. The effects assessment considered both freshwater and saltwater toxicity test results. Phytoplankton were the most sensitive organisms, followed, in decreasing order of sensitivity, by macrophytes, benthic invertebrates, zooplankton, and fish. Atrazine inhibits photophosphorylation but typically does not result in lethality or permanent cell damage in the short term. This characteristic of atrazine required a different model than typically used for understanding the potential impact in aquatic systems, where lethality or nonreversible effects are usually assumed. In addition, recovery of phytoplankto...

The term flashiness reflects the frequency and rapidity of short term changes in streamflow, especially during runoff events. Flashiness is an important component of a stream's hydrologic regime. A variety of land use and land management changes may lead to increased or decreased flashiness, often to the detriment of aquatic life. This paper presents a newly developed flashiness index, which is based on mean daily flows. The index is calculated by dividing the pathlength of flow oscillations for a time interval (i.e., the sum of the absolute values of day‐to‐day changes in mean daily flow) by total discharge during that time interval. This index has low interannual variability, relative to most flow regime indicators, and thus greater power to detect trends. Index values were calculated for 515 Midwestern streams for the 27‐year period from 1975 through 2001. Statistically significant increases were present in 22 percent of the streams, primarily in the eastern portion of the study area, while decreases were present in 9 percent, primarily in the western portion. Index values tend to decrease with increasing watershed area and with increasing unit area ground water inputs. Area compensated index values often shift at ecoregion boundaries. Potential index applications include evaluation of programs to restore more natural flow regimes.

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Monte Carlo techniques were used to evaluate the accuracy and precision of tributary load estimates, as these are affected by sampling frequency and pattern, calculation method, watershed size, and parameter behavior during storm runoff events. Simulated years consisting of 1460 observations were chosen at random with replacement from data sets of more than 4000 samples. Patterned subsampling of these simulated years produced data appropriate to each sampling frequency and pattern, from which load estimates were calculated. Thus results for all sampling strategies were based on the same series of simulated years. Sampling frequencies ranged from 12 to roughly 600 samples per year. Unstratified and flow-stratified sampling were examined, and loads were calculated with and without the use of the Beale Ratio Estimator. All loads were evaluated by comparison with loads calculated from all 1460 samples in the simulated year. Studies consisting of 1000 iterations were repeated twice for each of five parameters in each of three watersheds. The results show that bias and precision of loading estimates are affected not only by the frequency and pattern of sampling and the calculation approach used, but also by the watershed size and the behavior of the chemical species being monitored. Furthermore, considerable interaction exists between these factors. In every case, loads based on flow-stratified sampling and calculated using the Beale ratio estimator provided the best results among the strategies examined. Differences in bias and precision among watersheds and among transported materials are related to the variability of instantaneous fluxes in the systems being monitored. These differences are qualitatively predictable from knowledge of the time behavior of the material and hydrological systems involved. Attempts to derive quantitative relationships to predict the sampling effort required to achieve a specified level of precision have not been successful. INTRODUCTION During the last decade, extensive efforts have been made to identify and reduce sources of pollution to the Laurentian Great Lakes. An important component of this program has been monitoring efforts designed to measure the tributary loads of various pollutants. A substantial portion of the pollutant loads of many tributary loads is contributed by agricultural nonpoint sources. Monitoring programs have been implemented by many different state, provincial, and federal agencies in the United States and Canada and have involved a wide range of sampling frequencies, sampling designs, and load calculation methodologies.Several factors combine to make difficult the design of an adequate sampling program for a tributary when nonpoint sources are important contributors to pollutant loads. First, the time patterns of flow and pollutant concentration of the tributary are often poorly known during the design of the monitoring program. Second, many tributaries are characterized by highly skewed distributions of pollutant fluxes: commonly as much as 80% of the annual l...

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The triazine herbicide atrazine (2‐chloro‐4‐ethylamino‐6‐isopropyl‐amino‐s‐triazine) is one of the most used pesticides in North America. Atrazine is principally used for control of certain annual broadleaf and grass weeds, primarily in corn but also in sorghum, sugarcane, and, to a lesser extent, other crops and landscaping. Atrazine is found in many surface and ground waters in North America, and aquatic ecological effects are a possible concern for the regulatory and regulated communities. To address these concerns an expert panel (the Panel) was convened to conduct a comprehensive aquatic ecological risk assessment. This assessment was based on several newly suggested procedures and included exposure and hazard subcomponents as well as the overall risk assessment. The Panel determined that use of probabilistic risk assessment techniques was appropriate. Here, the results of this assessment are presented as a case study for these techniques. The environmental exposure assessment concentrated on monitoring data from Midwestern watersheds, the area of greatest atrazine use in North America. This analysis revealed that atrazine concentrations rarely exceed 20 μg/L in rivers and streams that were the main focus of the aquatic ecological risk assessment. Following storm runoff, biota in lower‐order streams may be exposed to pulses of atrazine greater than 20 μg/L, but these exposures are short‐lived. The assessment also considered exposures in lakes and reservoirs. The principal data set was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, which monitored residues in 76 Midwestern reservoirs in 11 states in 1992‐1993. Residue concentrations in some reservoirs were similar to those in streams but persisted longer. Atrazine residues were widespread in reservoirs (92% occurrence), and the 90th percentile of this exposure distribution for early June to July was about 5 μg/L. Mathematical simulation models of chemical fate were used to generalize the exposure analysis to other sites and to assess the potential effects of reduction in the application rates. Models were evaluated, modified, and calibrated against available monitoring data to validate that these models could predict atrazine runoff. PRZM‐2 overpredicted atrazine concentrations by about an order of magnitude, whereas GLEAMS underpredicted by a factor of 2 to 5. Thus, exposure models were not used to extrapolate to other regions of atrazine use in this assessment. The effects assessment considered both freshwater and saltwater toxicity test results. Phytoplankton were the most sensitive organisms, followed, in decreasing order of sensitivity, by macrophytes, benthic invertebrates, zooplankton, and fish. Atrazine inhibits photophosphorylation but typically does not result in lethality or permanent cell damage in the short term. This characteristic of atrazine required a different model than typically used for understanding the potential impact in aquatic systems, where lethality or nonreversible effects are usually assumed. In addition, recovery of phytoplan...