The characteristics of climatic rainfall variability in Indonesia are investigated using a double correlation method. The results are compared with empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and rotated EOF methods. In addition, local and remote responses to sea-surface temperature (SST) are discussed. The results suggest three climatic regions in Indonesia with their distinct characteristics. Region A is located in southern Indonesia from south Sumatera to Timor island, southern Kalimantan, Sulawesi and part of Irian Jaya. Region B is located in northwest Indonesia from northern Sumatra to northwestern Kalimantan. Region C encompasses Maluku and northern Sulawesi. All three regions show both strong annual and, except Region A, semi-annual variability. Region C shows the strongest El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) influence, followed by Region A. In Region B, the ENSO-related signal is suppressed. Except for Region B, there are significant correlations between SST and the rainfall variabilities, indicating a strong possibility for seasonal climate predictions. March to May is the most difficult season to predict the rainfall variability. From June to November, there are significant responses of the rainfall pattern to ENSO in Regions A and C. A strong ENSO influence during this normally dry season (June to September) is hazardous in El Niño years, because the negative response means that higher SST in the NIÑO3 of the Pacific region will lower the rainfall amount over the Indonesian region. Analyses of Indonesian rainfall variability reveal some sensitivities to SST variabilities in adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Abstract. Upwelling along the Java-Sumatra Indian Ocean coasts is a response to regional winds associated with the monsoon climate. The upwelling center with low sea surface temperature migrates westward and toward the equator during the southeast monsoon (June to October). The migration path depends on the seasonal evolution of alongshore winds and latitudinal changes in the Coriolis parameter. Upwelling is eventually terminated due to the reversal of winds associated with the onset of the northwest monsoon and impingement of Indian Ocean equatorial Kelvin waves. Significant interannual variability of the Java-Sumatra upwelling is linked to ENSO through the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) and by anomalous easterly wind. During E1 Nifio episodes, the Java-Sumatra upwelling extends in both time (into November) and space (closer to the equator). During E1 Nino (La Nifia), the ITF carries colder (warmer) water shallowing (deepening) thermocline depth and enhancing (reducing) upwelling strength.
In 2008–2009 the Makassar throughflow profile changed dramatically: the characteristic thermocline velocity maximum increased from 0.7 to 0.9 m/sec and shifted from 140 m to 70 m, amounting to a 47% increase in the transport of warmer water between 50 and 150 m during the boreal summer. HYCOM output indicates that ENSO induced change of the South China Sea (SCS) throughflow into the Indonesian seas is the likely cause. Increased SCS throughflow during El Niño with a commensurate increase in the southward flow of buoyant surface water through the Sulu Sea into the northern Makassar Strait, inhibits tropical Pacific surface water injection into Makassar Strait; during La Niña SCS throughflow is near zero allowing tropical Pacific inflow. The resulting warmer ITF reaches into the Indian Ocean, potentially affecting regional sea surface temperature and climate.
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