In 2008–2009 the Makassar throughflow profile changed dramatically: the characteristic thermocline velocity maximum increased from 0.7 to 0.9 m/sec and shifted from 140 m to 70 m, amounting to a 47% increase in the transport of warmer water between 50 and 150 m during the boreal summer. HYCOM output indicates that ENSO induced change of the South China Sea (SCS) throughflow into the Indonesian seas is the likely cause. Increased SCS throughflow during El Niño with a commensurate increase in the southward flow of buoyant surface water through the Sulu Sea into the northern Makassar Strait, inhibits tropical Pacific surface water injection into Makassar Strait; during La Niña SCS throughflow is near zero allowing tropical Pacific inflow. The resulting warmer ITF reaches into the Indian Ocean, potentially affecting regional sea surface temperature and climate.
The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a multimodel subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced 17 years of retrospective (re)forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The reforecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation 3 weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multimodel ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated, with skillful predictions of the MJO 4 weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones, which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters.
a b s t r a c tThis paper presents a five-year global simulation of HYCOM, the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model, that simultaneously resolves the eddying general circulation, barotropic tides, and baroclinic tides with 32 layers in the vertical direction and 1/12.5°(equatorial) horizontal grid spacing. A parameterized topographic wave drag is inserted into the model and tuned so that the surface tidal elevations are of comparable accuracy to those in optimally tuned forward tide models used in previous studies. The model captures 93% of the open-ocean sea-surface height variance of the eight largest tidal constituents, as recorded by a standard set of 102 pelagic tide gauges spread around the World Ocean. In order to minimize the impact of the wave drag on non-tidal motions, the model utilizes a running 25-h average to approximately separate tidal and non-tidal components of the near-bottom flow. In contrast to earlier high-resolution global baroclinic tide simulations, which utilized tidal forcing only, the simulation presented here has a horizontally non-uniform stratification, supported by the wind-and buoyancy forcing. The horizontally varying stratification affects the baroclinic tides in high latitudes to first order. The magnitude of the internal tide perturbations to sea surface elevation amplitude and phase in a large box surrounding Hawai'i is quite similar to that observed in satellite altimeter data, although the exact locations of peaks and troughs in the modeled perturbations differ from those in the observed perturbations.
The complex geometry, the seasonally reversing monsoon winds, and the connectivity with the Pacific Ocean all contribute to the coupled dynamics of the circulation in the South China Sea (SCS), the Sulu Sea, and the region around the Philippine Islands. The 1/2 ø, 1.5-layer global reduced gravity thermodynamic Navy layered ocean model (NLOM) is used to separate these components and to investigate the role of each one. When forced by the Hellerman and Rosenstein [1983] (Hit) monthly wind stress climatology, the basic features of the model solution compare well with observations, and with higher-resolution NLOM versions. The dynamics of the flow from the Pacific Ocean into the SCS via the Luzon Strait are emphasized. The effects of Ekman suction/pumping due to wind curl are examined by forming monthly spatial averages of the winds over the SCS/Sulu Sea basins. This maintains a monthly varying stress but with a region of zero curl. Forcing the model with these modified winds leaves the mean Luzon Strait transport unchanged, and the variability actually increases slightly. These results suggest that it is the pressure head created by the pileup of water from the monsoonal wind stress that controls the variability of the Luzon Strait transport. The forcing for wind stress pileup effects could be either internal or external to the SCS/Sulu Sea basin. The effects of internal forcing are studied by applying monthly winds within this basin but annual Hit winds outside the region. With this forcing the mean Luzon Strait transport is essentially unchanged, but the variability is only 44% of the standard case value. The external forcing is deftned as zero stress in the SCS/Sulu Sea basins and Hit monthly winds outside. Again, the mean Luzon Strait transport is unchanged, and here the variability is 60% of the standard case. The mean Luzon Strait transport is largely a function of the model geometry. When the Sulu archipelago is opened, a net cyclonic flow develops around the Philippines, which is essentially an extension of the northern tropical gyre. The bifurcation latitude of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) at the Philippine coast is also affected by the amount of transport through the Sulu archipelago. Opening this archipelago causes the NEC split point to move southward and increases the transport of the Kuroshio east of Luzon while decreasing the Mindanao Current. Opening or closing the Sunda Shelf/Java Sea or the Sulu archipelago does not affect the transport of the Pacific to Indian Ocean throughflow. South China Sea (SCS) via the wide and deep Luzon Strait. To the south, the waters are joined via the Sulu, Java, Sulawesi, Molucca, and Halmahera Seas as well as the interior passages of the Philippine Islands (Figure la). The seasonally reversing monsoon winds also play Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union. Paper number 95JC03861. 0148-0227/96/95JC-03861 $09.00 an important role in determining the upper ocean circulation. This combination of geometry, connectivity with the Pacific Ocean, and strongly va...
B y E r i c P. c h a s s i g N E t, h a r l E y E . h u r l B u r t, E . J o s E P h M E t z g E r , o l E M a r t i N s M E d s ta d , J a M E s a . c u M M i N g s ,g E o r g E r . h a l l i w E l l , r a i N E r B l E c k , r E M y B a r a i l l E , The partnership represents a broad spectrum of the oceanographic community, bringing together academia, federal agencies, and industry/commercial entities, and spanning modeling, data assimilation, data management and serving, observational capabilities, and application of HYCOM prediction system outputs. In addition to providing real-time, eddy-resolving global-and basin-scale ocean prediction systems for the US Navy and NOAA, this project also offered an outstanding opportunity for NOAA-Navy collaboration and cooperation, ranging from research to the operational level. This paper provides an overview of the global HYCOM ocean prediction system and highlights some of its achievements. An important outcome of this effort is the capability of the global system to provide boundary conditions to even higherresolution regional and coastal models.Oceanography Vol. In addition to operational eddyresolving global-and basin-scale ocean prediction systems for the US Navy and NOAA, respectively, this project offered an outstanding opportunity for NOAA-Navy collaboration and cooperation ranging from research to the operational level.
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