How do citizens evaluate the performance of their mayors? Previous studies have examined mayoral performance either with cross‐sectional surveys or by comparing pairs of consecutive elections. In this article, we use 150 surveys conducted in New York City between 1984 and 2009 to carry out the first time‐series analysis of mayoral approval. We show that fluctuations in crime and the economy affect mayors’ ratings and that black and white citizens react similarly to changing local conditions (although their initial evaluations of mayors often diverge sharply). We also show that how New Yorkers rate mayors in the polls is closely related to how they vote for mayors at the polls.
What are the chances that Congress and the president will tackle the social security problem and enact reforms within the next several years? Does it seem more likely that they would adopt a comprehensive new system for retirement security or that they would approve more modest adjustments to the current system, returning the program to actuarial balance without altering its fundamental character? Are some kinds of reforms more politically attractive than others? These are important questions that deserve careful answers. This article addresses these questions within a general discussion of the political feasibility of alternative schemes for reforming Social Security. Policy analysts often avoid questions of political feasibility, preferring to design programs that they believe will best achieve certain ends, while leaving it to politicians to "do the right thing." Sometimes this works nicely, and elected politicians enact analysts' handiwork. Quite frequently, however, the absence of early political analysis leads to unhappy outcomes. Sometimes Congress rejects not only the proposed policy but the notion of doing anything at all. Some would argue that this is what happened with President Bill Clinton's healthcare package. A comprehensive plan designed by policy specialists without proper attention to political feasibility drove health-care reform off the governmental agenda. A second possibility is that Congress may start with policy analysts' most-preferred policy but quickly transform it into something that is unrecognizable to its early advocates and unlikely to achieve their intended purpose. The 89th Congress did this with President Lyndon Johnson's proposal to concentrate large sums of money in a few Model Cities by insisting that smaller sums be dispersed among 150 cities. 1 A third possibility is that Congress
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