China is characterized by a low fertility intention, a strong preference for sons, as well as a stringent birth control policy. In this study, we used data from a Fertility Intention and Behavior Survey of 2101 questionnaires conducted in 2013 in Shaanxi Province of northwestern China, and event history analysis methods to examine the effect of fertility intention and preference for sons on the probability of having a second child. The results not only validate the correlation of fertility intention with having a second child empirically, even in the low fertility intention and stringent birth control context of China, but also show that women with a preference for sons were less likely to have a second child. Women with son preference turn to sex-selective abortion to ensure that their first child is a son, thus reducing the likelihood of a second child and decreasing the fertility rate. Our findings also shed light on China’s potential fertility policy adjustment.

China, a society long characterized by traditional Confucianism and the practice of filial piety, is undergoing dramatic socioeconomic development and erosion of traditions. In this rapidly changing context, the motives behind rural parental bequests have not been well studied. This paper draws on a survey conducted in rural Anhui province of China and uses hierarchical linear models (HLM) to examine whether three kinds of support from children are associated with older parents’ bequest motives. We find that while instrumental support accords with an exchange model of motivation, financial transfer is consistent with an altruistic motivation for parental bequest plans. Offspring gender is strongly associated with parental planning of bequests, when only sons are considered; family division is a strong correlate of parents’ bequest plan and reflects exchange motivation. These findings have important implications for research on traditional culture and an evolving social security system.

China’s sex ratio imbalance and the surplus of males have received a great deal of attention, but measures of the extent of the marriage squeeze do not take into account the marital status of population. In this paper, we devise an index of the marriage squeeze for the never-married population and use it to project the male marriage squeeze from 2000 to 2060. From the predicted population and nuptiality tables, we estimate trends in the proportion of men that never marry by age 50 and the mean age at first marriage. We find that the marriage squeeze is much more intense if only the never-married population is considered, rather than including all people without distinguishing their marital status. As the lifelong never-married proportion increases, mean age at first marriage rises first and then declines.

No abstract

As one of the world’s two population ‘billionaires’, the future of China’s population is truly of global significance. With its very low fertility and a rapidly ageing population, it might appear that the country’s famous (or notorious) family planning restrictions are somewhat anachronistic. Here, we explore the process of reform seen over the past three decades and, most recently, in late 2013. We suggest that the popular notion that the family planning restrictions are acting as a pressure valve suppressing a pent-up demand for childbearing, particularly in rural China, is likely to be inaccurate. We also suggest that further reform of the restrictions will not solve the problems of population ageing or many of the other issues widely associated with the restrictions. We conclude that the prospects for further reform are wide-ranging, but likely to be beset by many challenges.

There are currently around a million Chinese households where the only child has died and the mother is beyond reproductive age. The number of such bereaved parents, known as shidu fumu, is forecast to increase to over 11 million by 2050. Using a sample survey conducted in 2013 in Shaanxi Province, the article explores the vulnerability of shidu fumu by various measures of well-being. Such parents are more vulnerable than nonbereaved parents in every respect. There are also significant differences in well-being between shidu fumu due to parental characteristics. We argue that policies supporting shidu fumu should be strengthened.

No abstract

No abstract