China is characterized by a low fertility intention, a strong preference for sons, as well as a stringent birth control policy. In this study, we used data from a Fertility Intention and Behavior Survey of 2101 questionnaires conducted in 2013 in Shaanxi Province of northwestern China, and event history analysis methods to examine the effect of fertility intention and preference for sons on the probability of having a second child. The results not only validate the correlation of fertility intention with having a second child empirically, even in the low fertility intention and stringent birth control context of China, but also show that women with a preference for sons were less likely to have a second child. Women with son preference turn to sex-selective abortion to ensure that their first child is a son, thus reducing the likelihood of a second child and decreasing the fertility rate. Our findings also shed light on China’s potential fertility policy adjustment.

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China’s rapid aging has caused widespread concern, but it seems that the situations and consequences of rapid aging are not adequately acknowledged. This study analyzed the problem of ageing in China from the aspects of elderly people’s health status, income source, daily care, suicide, the weak social security system in terms of pension, health expenses, and long-term care costs as well as incoming accelerating ageing process in China. All these factors indicate that it is difficult for China to afford the issue of a rapidly aging population.

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Background The period fertility in China has declined to very low levels, and the completed cohort fertility rate (CFR) has also decreased significantly. However, the exact fertility rate remains controversial. While the tempo effect has played a significant role in China’s period fertility decline, child underreporting has to be taken into consideration in China’s fertility research. Methods By using the census data from 1982 to 2010, and the 1% population sample survey data from 1995 to 2015, we systematically analyzed China’s fertility and its trends since the 1980s using period fertility measures, adjusted period fertility measures, cohort fertility measures, and indirect estimation methods. Results The results show that marriage postponement significantly affects the TFR decline. Even after eliminating the tempo and parity structure effect, the adjusted TFR has fallen below 1.5, and the first-order fertility rate dropped to 0.9 in 2015. The CFR for women aged 45–49 declined from 5.37 in 1982 to 1.62 in 2015 mainly because of a decrease in fourth and higher-order births from 1982 to 1990, a decrease in second and third births from 1990 to 2000, and a decrease in second births from 2000 to 2015. Indirect estimation methods yielded a TFR in the range of 1.5–1.6 for the period 2000–2010 and an average TFR of 1.49 for the period 2011–2020. Conclusions The traditional norm of universal marriage and childbearing for Chinese women is changing. China’s fertility has been steadily declining, as measured by both period and cohort indicators. Following the historical change, fertility may continue to decline even after introducing the universal three-child policy in China in 2021.

Summary The long-term high sex ratio at birth (SRB) is a serious issue in China. In this study, changes in SRB were decomposed into variations in SRB by birth order and compositional changes in female births by birth order. With SRB data from China’s surveys and censuses, and SRB data from South Korea’s vital registration and censuses from 1980–2015, the trend and decomposition results in SRB were compared between China and South Korea, and the decomposition results for urban and rural SRBs, and for provinces, are presented. In both China and South Korea the rise in the SRB was driven by a rise in the SRB at all birth orders, which was only partly counteracted by the change in the distribution of births by order. The overall rise in the SRB ended when there was a decline in the SRB at second birth or above. In China the total effect of variations in SRB of all birth orders increased more for the rural population than for the urban population before 2000, resulting in a higher total SRB for rural than urban population. After 2000, the total effect of variations in SRB of all birth orders lowered the total SRB for the rural population, whereas the effect of compositional change increased the total SRB, leading to a very slight rise in the total SRB for the rural population. At the province level, there was no spatial autocorrelation for the changes in total SRB by province, the total effect of variations in SRB of all birth orders or the effect of compositional change. The effect of variations in SRB by birth order accounted for the majority of changes in total SRB in most provinces.

The phenomenon of “missing women” has existed throughout the twentieth century in China. Using data from five censuses, with appropriate adjustments, we estimate the numbers and percentage of missing women from the period 1900–2000. The analysis is broken down into historically important periods, and the consequences of missing women, particularly that of China’s “bare branches” are explored. Implications for Chinese society are then discussed.

As population ageing accelerates in China, the number of elderly widowed individuals are expected to increase. Using 2010 census data we estimate widowhood indices for rural and urban areas, and for men and women in China. The indices show that the probability of elderly widowhood to be higher for females (0.68) than males (0.32)-with no rural and urban difference. An average marriage in China lasts about 47 years. After the death of a spouse, the average duration of widowhood is about 11 years for males and about 15 years for females. Spousal age difference has a significant impact on widowhood indices. Rural populations have the shortest marriage duration and the youngest widowhood age, and longer widowhood duration.