This article analyzes the effect of production uncertainty on farmland allocation decisions between perennial and annual crops, focusing on a representative farmer's attitude toward risk. A dynamic stochastic optimization model that considers net planting—the difference between new plantings and removals of perennial crops that achieve full production cycle—is used. The effect of uncertainty on the representative farmer's decisions to increase or decrease perennial crops’ acreage, on the optimal path, is examined. Our results reveal that the response of optimal path of net planting to uncertainty related to perennial crop production is highly affected by the farmer's attitude toward risk. A risk‐averse or a low‐risk loving farmer tends to reduce land allocation to perennial crops under uncertainty, while a high‐risk loving farmer will do exactly the opposite. Also, due to disutility of farming, the farmer tends to reduce land allocation to perennial crops when prices are high enough for him to attain a desired income level expectation. One implication of this research is the need for mechanization—in sub‐Saharan countries in particular—that increases per‐acreage yield and output in semisubsistence agriculture.
This paper conceptualizes the soil conservation decisions of farmers when confronted with climate uncertainty. Using a dynamic stochastic optimization model with uncertainty captured by climate variability, soil conservation investment is assessed within the framework of an investment adjustment cost model. The theoretical results reveal that the effects of an uncertain future climate on the optimal path of soil conservation investment depend on how sensitive production is to climate and that input and output prices have level effects on the optimal path of investment. An empirical application to data from Texas shows that depending on the sensitivity of production to climate and the severity of the risk; climate induced uncertainty may have a negative effect, a threshold (U-shaped) effect, or no effect at all on soil conservation investment.
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