No abstract

A Bayesian approach was developed by Hald et al.((1)) to estimate the contribution of different food sources to the burden of human salmonellosis in Denmark. This article describes the development of several modifications that can be used to adapt the model to different countries and pathogens. Our modified Hald model has several advantages over the original approach, which include the introduction of uncertainty in the estimates of source prevalence and an improved strategy for identifiability. We have applied our modified model to the two major food-borne zoonoses in New Zealand, namely, campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis. Major challenges were the data quality for salmonellosis and the inclusion of environmental sources of campylobacteriosis. We conclude that by modifying the Hald model we have improved its identifiability, made it more applicable to countries with less intensive surveillance, and feasible for other pathogens, in particular with respect to the inclusion of nonfood sources. The wider application and better understanding of this approach is of particular importance due to the value of the model for decision making and risk management.

The epidemiology of human campylobacteriosis is complex but in recent years understanding of this disease has advanced considerably. Despite being a major public health concern in many countries, the presence of multiple hosts, genotypes and transmission pathways has made it difficult to identify and quantify the determinants of human infection and disease. This has delayed the development of successful intervention programmes for this disease in many countries including New Zealand, a country with a comparatively high, yet until recently poorly understood, rate of notified disease. This study investigated the epidemiology of Campylobacter jejuni at the genotype-level over a 3-year period between 2005 and 2008 using multilocus sequence typing. By combining epidemiological surveillance and population genetics, a dominant, internationally rare strain of C. jejuni (ST474) was identified, and most human cases (65.7%) were found to be caused by only seven different genotypes. Source association of genotypes was used to identify risk factors at the genotype-level through multivariable logistic regression and a spatial model. Poultry-associated cases were more likely to be found in urban areas compared to rural areas. In particular young children in rural areas had a higher risk of infection with ruminant strains than their urban counterparts. These findings provide important information for the implementation of pathway-specific control strategies.

Previous reports have suggested that T. orientalis group species may be non-pathogenic in healthy cattle, and an incidental finding in blood samples. However, this investigation provided evidence that in New Zealand, this pathogen is capable of causing clinical disease in cattle not necessarily debilitated by another disease. The potential for disease should be considered when naive cattle are brought in from non-endemic to endemic regions, for instance cattle from the South Island moved to regions where the vector for T. orientalis group species, Haemaphysalis longicornis, is active, and T. orientalis is present.

In New Zealand the number of campylobacteriosis notifications increased markedly between 2000 and 2007. Notably, this country's poultry supply is different than that of many developed countries as the fresh and frozen poultry available at retail are exclusively of domestic origin. To examine the possible link between human cases and poultry, a sentinel surveillance site was established to study the molecular epidemiology of Campylobacter jejuni over a 3-year period from 2005 to 2008 using multilocus sequence typing. Studies showed that 60.1 to 81.4% of retail poultry carcasses from the major suppliers were contaminated with C. jejuni. Differences were detected in the probability and level of contamination and the relative frequency of genotypes for individual poultry suppliers and humans. Some carcasses were contaminated with isolates belonging to more than one sequence type (ST), and there was evidence of both ubiquitous and supplier-associated strains, an epidemiological pattern not recognized yet in other countries. The common poultry STs were also common in human clinical cases, providing evidence that poultry is a major contributor to human infection. Both internationally rare genotypes, such as ST-3069 and ST-474, and common genotypes, such as ST-45 and ST-48, were identified in this study. The dominant human sequence type in New Zealand, ST-474, was found almost exclusively in isolates from one poultry supplier, which provided evidence that C. jejuni has a distinctive molecular epidemiology in this country. These results may be due in part to New Zealand's geographical isolation and its uniquely structured poultry industry.

The ICF provides a valuable reference to identify and quantify the concepts of outcome measures focusing on rehabilitation in the acute hospital and in early post-acute rehabilitation facilities. Our findings indicate a need to define and to agree on 'what should be measured' in rehabilitation care to allow for a comparison of patient populations.