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Resumo: Este trabalho teve por objetivo quantificar e analisar os impactos do programa do estado do Pará "Municípios Verdes" (PMV) entre 2010 e 2013 através dos métodos de diferença nas diferenças e propensiy score matching. Os resultados sugerem que nem todos os participantes têm conseguido reduzir seus níveis de desmatamento em relação aos não participantes. No entanto, uma parcela dos municípios participantes, que já possuíam taxas reduzidas de desmatamento antes do início do programa em 2011, têm obtido sucesso em sustentar baixos níveis de desmatamento, e, portanto, seriam merecedores das vantagens jurídicas e econômicas oferecidas pelo PMV. Palavras

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Economic value of supplementary water in Brazilian crops: an application of a multisector growth model Despite its large reserves of fresh water, Brazil has a high concentration of these hydrological resource in the north region, which makes it relative scarce for attaining various demands such as irrigation, human and industrial uses. In the country, as it is the case in many other places in the world, proposals and implementations of water charge policies have been discussed, and those inevitably depend on resource's economic valuations. Therefore, this thesis aimed to estimate the economic value of water in Brazilian irrigate crops by using a multisector growth model with endogenous savings, that also included regional disaggregation. The model was calibrated for the year 2005 through a social accounting matrix with explicit water remuneration, and a growth accounting exercise. The results are the monetary values for two different concepts were obtained: shadow-rent and shadow-price. The first one can be directly associated to current values in water charging policies in Brazil, while the second one is related to the estimations of all the water used in the base year, and is theoretically linked to physical capital stock dynamics, which justifies the use of the proposed methodology. Specifically, the highest values in both shadow-rent and shadow-price concepts were found in the aggregated sector "other crops", i.e., crops other than rice and sugar cane, in middle-south region of Brazil, thus comprising a large part of the modern agricultural frontier. Meanwhile, small values were found for sugar cane production, also in center-south region, the biggest user of water in the country, due to agronomical and institutional aspects of the sector, such as the desirability of water restrictions during plant development and the large supply of water from stillage that, for legal reasons, is applied to the crops. Additionally, referent to the regional approach, the results suggest that water charging policies could adopt the economic activity as parameter to establish the charged value. In terms of water stock value, the largest share of it comprises rice and other crops, while sugarcane is responsible for a lower share of total value.

Agricultural productivity and structural change in Brazil -an analysis of the period of 1981-2013In the last decades, Brazilian agriculture has experienced high productivity gains, as discussed by many studies in the economic literature. The agricultural productivity growth has allowed for a wide transfer of labor from agriculture to urban activities, especially to services sector, enabling the structural change process by reducing the primary sector share in Brazilian economy. This thesis has two objectives; the first one is the implementation of a dynamic general equilibrium model which capture the Brazilian structural change patterns between 1981 and 2013. The second objective is to simulate an alternative scenario in which agricultural productivity would have grown at the same rate as Brazilian economy's productivity has grown. More specifically, the model adopted was based on Verma (2012), which is an empirical adaptation of the theoretical model developed by Ngai and Pissarides (2007), which assumes that differences in sectoral total factor productivity (TFP) growth are the main mechanism for structural change occurrence. The baseline model was numerically solved after calibration with real data and literature review, and obtainment of sectoral TFP growth series by growth accounting à la Solow (1957), and it reproduces robustly the level and trend of the three sectors' value added shares in the economy. The alternative scenario's simulation suggests that in the presence of low agricultural productivity growth, the labor would not be released from agriculture at the same magnitude, what would imply in a lower growth of service sector's shares in the stylized measures of structural change.

Resumo: Apesar de possuir uma das maiores reservas de água doce do mundo, o Brasil apresenta uma elevada concentração deste recurso hídrico na região Norte, de modo que existe relativa escassez no atendimento de diferentes demandas, entre as quais a irrigação, abastecimento humano e uso industrial. Nesse sentido, têm surgido propostas e experiências de políticas de cobrança pelo uso da água que, inevitavelmente, passam pela atribuição de um valor econômico para ela. Os resultados empíricos deste artigo fornecem estimativas do valor econômico da água utilizada na suplementação hídrica de lavouras selecionadas, por meio da aplicação de um modelo multissetorial de crescimento, calibrado para o ano de 2005, utilizando uma matriz de contabilidade social com discriminação da remuneração da água, e um exercício de decomposição do crescimento. Os valores da água obtidos são expressos por meio de dois conceitos distintos existentes em uma perspectiva intertemporal: sua remuneração-sombra e seu preço-sombra. Os maiores valores de remuneração e preço-sombra estão no grupo de “outras lavouras” – lavouras que não correspondem às produções de arroz e de cana-de-açúcar – do Centro-Sul brasileiro. Por outro lado, os menores valores foram obtidos para a cana-de-açúcar também no Centro-Sul, que é o maior demandante de água do país.

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