Energy constitutes an essential share of costs across any economy. The percentage of electricity in the overall energy consumption is steadily increasing. This increase, however, is not reflected correctly in the consumption basket relevant for measuring inflation and, therefore, for monetary policy formulation. We argue that the energy mix reflected in inflation should be revised in favour of electricity. We present an analysis of inflationary pressures across Europe and decompose the impact of energy categories on headline inflation. Building on the inflation expectations framework, this study examines the characteristics and magnitude of the current energy price dynamics and quantifies its share in the countries’ effective inflation. Our research also confirms a compelling insight into the country’s energy structure and inflationary pressures when a larger share of renewable electricity sources proves to be associated with lower inflation. Finally, we argue that the energy price shock cannot be viewed as a one-shot event as in the case of oil price shocks in the past. We draw recommendations for monetary policy formulation. The implication of renewable sources on inflation should be of interest to policymakers, especially in times of high, almost galloping inflation rates in some European countries, unstable fossil energy sources supply due to geopolitical instability, and climate crisis.
ÚvodV tomto článku navazujeme na studii publikovanou v roce 2008 (Cimburek -Řežábek, 2008). Tehdejší studie polemizovala a vyvracela tvrzení časopisu Economist (2007aEconomist ( , 2007b, že hotovost po tisíciletí fungování jako jedna z nejvšestrannějších a nejtrvalejších platebních technologií lidstva pravděpodobně zcela zanikne v průběhu nadcházejících patnácti let (tedy do roku 2022) a podlehne nové éře používání elektronických peněz či jiných virtuálních forem platebního styku. Cílem tehdejší studie bylo také poskytnutí jiného pohledu na problematiku hotovosti za pomoci definování kvantitativních faktorů a kvalitativních faktorů ovlivňujících používání hotovostních peněz.Studie z roku 2008 vydefinovala tyto kvalitativní faktory ovlivňující používání hotovosti na 1. straně poptávky:-kontrola a monitoring, -nízké náklady spojené s užíváním hotovosti, -uchování hodnoty, 2. straně nabídky:-bezpečnost, -řešení krizových situací, -řešení při neexistenci infrastruktury, -ekonomické faktory spojené s používáním hotovosti -ražebné.I když studie uváděla faktory nejen na straně poptávky, ale i nabídky, je zřejmé, že množství hotovostních peněz v oběhu je především determinováno poptávkou a ne monopolním rozhodnutím emisní autority (více k tématu monopolu centrálních bank a emise peněz Revenda, 2009).V tomto článku se detailněji zaměříme na vybranou problematiku související s chováním uživatelů platebních prostředků v případě řešení krizových situací. Právě finanční krize z roku 2008 nám v současné době dává možnost detailněji analyzovat některé z výše vydefinovaných faktorů ovlivňujících poptávku či nabídku hotovosti v oběhu, a to na straně poptávky (uchování hodnoty) a na straně nabídky (řešení krizových situací emisní autoritou). Cílem této studie je ověřit výzkumnou otázku, že hotovost splňuje požadavky na bezpečné a likvidní uchování hodnoty a kvalitativní faktory poptávky po penězích mají zásadní dopad na poptávané množství hotovosti v oběhu a jeho následnou emisi, především v krizových situacích.
Abstract:The paper provides empirical analysis of interactions between monetary and fiscal policy in the Czech Republic and document changes in policy conduct across the time. To this end, we build and estimate a six-variable Bayesian VAR and propose some refinements to the modelling framework. These improvements make it possible to better capture the main features of the economic system populated by both macroeconomic policy authorities. The results point to the lack of complementarity between policy actions adopted by the authorities and suggest that there is still enough room for enhancing the effectiveness of economic policies.
The Czech Republic has been a member of the European Union since 2004. As a Member State, it is obliged to join the euro area upon meeting all the Maastricht criteria. There is still no fixed date for adopting the single European currency. The Czech Republic is failing to meet some criteria. There are ongoing discussions about joining the euro among experts, bank representatives, politicians, entrepreneurs, representatives of the Czech Chamber of Commerce and various associations, economics students and the general public. The aim of this paper is to assess the ongoing fulfilment of the Maastricht convergence criteria in the Czech Republic and to identify the relationship between actual and perceived inflation. The paper reflects new aspects, which were generated by the recent development on financial markets during the last 2 years, including COVID-19 and Russian attack to Ukraine. Due to the fact, that not all statistics reflects recent development, some tables and charts are not reflecting this for hundred percent. The analyses carried out reveal that the only criterion that is currently met is the level of public debt (sustainability will be assessed at the time of application). Smooth adoption of the euro by the public is associated with an increased perception of inflation above actual inflation. This situation should be addressed by economic policy actors in preparation for joining the euro area. The importance of a government communication and explanation campaign was confirmed by countries in a similar position. Since February this year, Europe and the whole world have been facing a new geopolitical situation. There are voices calling for Europe to become stronger, more compact, perhaps move towards a federation, including a strengthening of the common currency’s position. Therefore, this is a highly topical issue. The final decision in the Czech Republic to start the process of adopting the euro and to set the date for joining the euro area rests with the Czech Government in cooperation with the Czech National Bank.
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