The present trend to electricity market restructuring increases the need for reliable short-term load forecast (STLF) algorithms, in order to assist electric utilities in activities such as planning, operating and controlling electric energy systems. Methodologies such as artificial neural networks (ANN) have been widely used in the next hour load forecast horizon with satisfactory results. However, this type of approach has had some shortcomings. Usually, the input vector (IV) is defined in a arbitrary way, mainly based on experience, on engineering judgment criteria and on concern about the ANN dimension, always taking into consideration the apparent correlations within the available endogenous and exogenous data. In this paper, a proposal is made of an approach to define the IV composition, with the main focus on reducing the influence of trial-and-error and common sense judgments, which usually are not based on sufficient evidence of comparative advantages over previous alternatives. The proposal includes the assessment of the strictly necessary instances of the endogenous variable, both from the point of view of the contiguous values prior to the forecast to be made, and of the past values representing the trend of consumption at homologous time intervals of the past. It also assesses the influence of exogenous variables, again limiting their presence at the IV to the indispensable minimum. A comparison is made with two alternative IV structures previously proposed in the literature, also applied to the distribution sector. The paper is supported by a real case study at the distribution sector.

The algorithms for short-term load forecast (STLF), especially within the next-hour horizon, belong to a group of methodologies that aim to render more effective the actions of planning, operating and controlling electric energy systems (EES). In the context of the progressive liberalisation of the electricity sector, unbundling of the previous monopolistic structure emphasizes the need for load forecast, particularly at the network level. Methodologies such as artificial neural networks (ANN) have been widely used in next-hour load forecast. Designing an ANN requires, amongst other things, the proper choice of input variables, avoiding overfitting and an unnecessarily complex input vector (IV). This may be achieved by trying to reduce the arbitrariness in the choice of endogenous variables. At a first stage, we have applied the mathematical techniques of process-reconstruction to the underlying stochastic process, using coding and block entropies to characterize the measure and memory range. At a second stage, the concept of consumption trend in homologous days of previous weeks has been used. The possibility to include weather-related variables in the IV has also been analyzed, the option finally being to establish a model of the non-weather sensitive type. The paper uses a real-life case study.

SUMMARYIn the last decades, short-term load forecasting(STLF) has been the object of particular attention in the power systems field. STLF has been applied almost exclusively to the generation sector, based on variables, which are transversal to most models. Among the most significant variables we can find load, expressed as active power (MW), as well as exogenous variables, such as weather and economy-related ones; although the latter are applied in larger forecasting horizons than STLF.In this paper, the application of STLF to the distribution sector is suggested including inductive reactive power as a forecasting endogenous variable. The inclusion of this additional variable is mainly due to the evidence that correlations between load and weather variables are tenuous, due to the mild climate of the actual case-study system and the consequent feeble penetration of electrical heating ventilation and air conditioning loads.Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been chosen as the forecasting methodology, with standard feed forward back propagation algorithm, because it is a largely used method with generally considered satisfactory results.Usually the input vector to ANN applied to load forecasting is defined in a discretionary way, mainly based on experience, on engineering judgement criteria and on concern about the ANN dimension, always taking into consideration the apparent (or actually evaluated) correlations within the available data. The approach referred in the paper includes pre-processing the data in order to influence the composition of the input vector in such a way as to reduce the margin of discretion in its definition. A relative entropy analysis has been performed to the time series of each variable. The paper also includes an illustrative case study.

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Abstract. The importance of forecasting has become more evident with the appearance of the open electricity market and the restructuring of the national energy sector. This paper presents a new approach to load forecasting in the medium voltage distribution network in Portugal. The forecast horizon is short term, from 24 hours up to a week. The forecast method is based on the combined use of a regression model and artificial neural networks (ANN). The study was done with the time series of telemetry data of the DSO (EDP Distribution) and climatic records from IPMA (Portuguese Institute of Sea and Atmosphere), applied for the urban area of Évora -one of the first Smart Cities in Portugal. The performance of the proposed methodology is illustrated by graphical results and evaluated with statistical indicators. The error (MAPE) was lower than 5%, meaning that chosen methodology clearly validate the feasibility of the test.

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