This paper models the phases of the UK business cycle using GDP data with a time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) Markov-switching regime model and exogenous leading indicator variables. Single indicators in linear models are compared with the TVTP framework, with logistic and exponential functions used in the latter. The Markov-switching models capture the major recessions of the sample, but the use of leading indicators through the TVTP framework can improve this regime recognition. Finally, a forecast comparison shows that the TVTP models perform relatively well in predicting during the 1990s, particularly when nominal interest rates are used to generate the regime-switching probabilities.
This paper examines the information available through leading indicators for modelling and forecasting the UK quarterly index of production. Both linear and non-linear specifications are examined, with the latter being of the Markov-switching type as used in many recent business cycle applications. The Markov-switching models perform relatively poorly in forecasting the 1990s production recession, but a three-indicator linear specification does well. The leading indicator variables in this latter model include a short-term interest rate, the stock market dividend yield and the optimism balance from the quarterly CBI survey.
Purpose The paper aims to examine the issue of potential disproportionality and racial profiling in s.163 traffic stops under the Road Traffic Act 1988, in light of recent media attention and referral of cases to the Independent Office for Police Conduct. Design/methodology/approach The paper reviews the law, procedural use and reports of racial profiling in s.163 traffic stops within a context of research which presents a history of disproportionate use of police tactics against ethnic minorities and black people in particular. An international perspective is evaluated as a potential framework for analysing the role of ethnicity in traffic stops in England and Wales. Findings There is an absence of systematically recorded data on s.163 stops. There are also significant contextual differences between traffic and street stop searches. For these reasons, doubt is cast over the legitimacy of institutionalised racism generalisations and arguments are presented against the extrapolation from street stop searches to s.163 traffic stops. Research limitations/implications Implications for future research which take operational procedures and priorities into account, along with the realities of the context in which s.163 stops occur, are discussed. Importantly, the role of ethnicity may only become apparent after a traffic stop has been executed, and hence research is required into how ethnicity may mediate the interaction between police officer and driver. Practical implications Implications for the implementation of a national procedural requirement to record s.163 stops and the collection of evidence of racial profiling are highlighted. Originality/value This paper highlights practical implications for future policy, leadership and police culture considerations.
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