Estimates of flood flows having given recurrence intervals or probabilities of exceedance are needed for design of hydraulic structures and floodplain management. Program PEAKFQ provides estimates of instantaneous annual peak flows having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years (exceedance probabilities of 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002, respectively). As implemented in program PEAKFQ, the Pearson Type III frequency distribution is fit to the logarithms of instantaneous annual peak flows following Bulletin 17B guidelines of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. The parameters of the Pearson Type III frequency curve are estimated by the logarithmic sample moments (mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of skewness). This documentation provides an overview of the computational procedures in program PEAKFQ, provides a description of the program menus, and provides an example of the output from the program.
This article presents recommendations by model developers and the authors about calibration and validation procedures for the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) as applied through BASINS. HSPF is a continuous simulation watershed model that simulates nonpoint-source runoff and pollutant loadings for a watershed and performs flow and water quality routing in stream reaches and well-mixed lakes and impoundments. HSPF can be used to estimate nonpoint-source loads from various land uses as well as fate and transport processes in streams and lakes. This article describes the ideal calibration and validation process for the full range of constituents modeled by HSPF, as well as the process for acceptable minimum calibration and validation of this model. The model information and guidance provided in this article may be used to help in determining the scope of the proposed ASABE Standard/Engineering Practice for model calibration and validation. Model calibration and validation are necessary and critical steps in any model application. For HSPF and most other watershed models, calibration is an iterative procedure of parameter evaluation and refinement, as a result of comparing simulated and observed values of interest. Model validation is in reality an extension of the calibration process. Its purpose is to ensure that the calibrated model properly assesses all the variables and conditions that can affect model results, and to demonstrate the ability to predict field observations for periods separate from the calibration effort. For HSPF calibration and validation, a "weight of evidence" approach is most widely used in practice when models are examined and judged for acceptance for assessment and regulatory purposes. This article explores the "weight of evidence" approach and the current practice of watershed model calibration and validation based on more than 30 years of experience with HSPF. Example applications are described and model results are shown to demonstrate the graphical and statistical procedures used to assess model performance. In addition, quantitative criteria for various statistical measures are discussed as a basis for evaluating model results and documenting the model application efforts.
Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid-21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid-21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid-21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30-40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/ residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.(KEY TERMS: climate change; urban and residential development; streamflow; water quality; sensitivity; assessment; Soil and Water Assessment Tool.)
Keywords:Himalayas Glacier melt Energy balance Stream flow s u m m a r y Quantification of the contribution of the hydrologic components (snow, ice and rain) to river discharge in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is important for decision-making in water sensitive sectors, and for water resources management and flood risk reduction. In this area, access to and monitoring of the glaciers and their melt outflow is challenging due to difficult access, thus modeling based on remote sensing offers the potential for providing information to improve water resources management and decision making. This paper describes an integrated modeling system developed using downscaled NASA satellite based and earth system data products coupled with in-situ hydrologic data to assess the contribution of snow and glaciers to the flows of the rivers in the HKH region. Snow and glacier melt was estimated using the Utah Energy Balance (UEB) model, further enhanced to accommodate glacier ice melt over clean and debris-covered tongues, then meltwater was input into the USGS Geospatial Stream Flow Model (Geo-SFM). The two model components were integrated into Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources modeling framework (BASINS) as a user-friendly open source system and was made available to countries in high Asia. Here we present a case study from the Langtang Khola watershed in the monsoon-influenced Nepal Himalaya, used to validate our energy balance approach and to test the applicability of our modeling system. The snow and glacier melt model predicts that for the eight years used for model evaluation (October 2003-September 2010, the total surface water input over the basin was 9.43 m, originating as 62% from glacier melt, 30% from snowmelt and 8% from rainfall. Measured streamflow for those years were 5.02 m, reflecting a runoff coefficient of 0.53. GeoSFM simulated streamflow was 5.31 m indicating reasonable correspondence between measured and model confirming the capability of the integrated system to provide a quantification of water availability.Published by Elsevier B.V.
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