Nowadays, sustainable development is considered a key concept and solution in creating a promising and prosperous future for human societies. Nevertheless, there are some predicted and unpredicted problems that epidemic diseases are real and complex problems. Hence, in this research work, a serious challenge in the sustainable development process was investigated using the classification of confirmed cases of COVID-19 (new version of Coronavirus) as one of the epidemic diseases. Hence, binary classification modeling was used by the group method of data handling (GMDH) type of neural network as one of the artificial intelligence methods. For this purpose, the Hubei province in China was selected as a case study to construct the proposed model, and some important factors, namely maximum, minimum, and average daily temperature, the density of a city, relative humidity, and wind speed, were considered as the input dataset, and the number of confirmed cases was selected as the output dataset for 30 days. The proposed binary classification model provides higher performance capacity in predicting the confirmed cases. In addition, regression analysis has been done and the trend of confirmed cases compared with the fluctuations of daily weather parameters (wind, humidity, and average temperature). The results demonstrated that the relative humidity and maximum daily temperature had the highest impact on the confirmed cases. The relative humidity in the main case study, with an average of 77.9%, affected positively, and maximum daily temperature, with an average of 15.4 • C, affected negatively, the confirmed cases.

In urban water management, green roofs provide a sustainable solution for flood risk mitigation. Numerous studies have investigated green roof hydrologic effectiveness and the parameters that influence their operation; many have been conducted on the pilot scale, whereas only some of these have been executed on full-scale rooftop installations. Several models have been developed, but only a few have investigated the influence of green roof physical parameters on performance. From this broader context, this paper presents the results of a monitoring analysis of an extensive green roof located at the University of Calabria, Italy, in the Mediterranean climate region. To obtain this goal, the subsurface runoff coefficient, peak flow reduction, peak flow lag-time, and time to the start of runoff were evaluated at an event scale by considering a set of data collected between October 2015 and September 2016 consisting of 62 storm events. The mean value of subsurface runoff was 32.0% when considering the whole dataset, and 50.4% for 35 rainfall events (principally major than 8.0 mm); these results indicate the good hydraulic performance of this specific green roof in a Mediterranean climate, which is in agreement with other studies. A modeling approach was used to evaluate the influence of the substrate depth on green roof retention. The soil hydraulics features were first measured using a simplified evaporation method, and then modeled using HYDRUS-1D software (PC-Progress s.r.o., Prague, Czech Republic) by considering different values of soil depth (6 cm, 9 cm, 12 cm, and 15 cm) for six months under Mediterranean climate conditions. The results showed how the specific soil substrate was able to achieve a runoff volume reduction ranging from 22% to 24% by increasing the soil depth.

a b s t r a c tThe increasing frequency of flooding events in urban catchments related to an increase in impervious surfaces highlights the inadequacy of traditional urban drainage systems. Low Impact Development (LID) techniques have proven to be a viable and effective alternative by reducing stormwater runoff and increasing the infiltration and evapotranspiration capacity of urban areas. However, the lack of adequate modeling tools represents a barrier in designing and constructing such systems. This paper investigates the suitability of a mechanistic model, HYDRUS-1D, to correctly describe the hydraulic behavior of permeable pavement installed at the University of Calabria. Two different scenarios of describing the hydraulic behavior of the permeable pavement system were analyzed: the first one uses a singleporosity model for all layers of the permeable pavement; the second one uses a dual-porosity model for the base and sub-base layers. Measured and modeled month-long hydrographs were compared using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index. A Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) followed by a Monte Carlo filtering highlighted the influence of the wear layer on the hydraulic behavior of the pavement and identified the ranges of parameters generating behavioral solutions. Reduced ranges were then used in the calibration procedure conducted with the metaheuristic Particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for the estimation of hydraulic parameters. The best fit value for the first scenario was NSE = 0.43; for the second scenario, it was NSE = 0.81, indicating that the dual-porosity approach is more appropriate for describing the variably-saturated flow in the base and sub-base layers. Estimated parameters were validated using an independent, month-long set of measurements, resulting in NSE values of 0.43 and 0.86 for the first and second scenarios, respectively. The improvement in correspondence between measured and modeled hydrographs confirmed the reliability of the combination of GSA and PSO in dealing with highly dimensional optimization problems. Obtained results have demonstrated that PSO, due to its easiness of implementation and effectiveness, can represent a new and viable alternative to traditional optimization algorithms for the inverse estimation of unsaturated hydraulic properties. Finally, the results confirmed the suitability and the accuracy of HYDRUS-1D in correctly describing the hydraulic behavior of permeable pavements.

Sustainable development has been a controversial global topic, and as a complex concept in recent years, it plays a key role in creating a favorable future for societies. Meanwhile, there are several problems in the process of implementing this approach, like epidemic diseases. Hence, in this study, the impact of climate and urban factors on confirmed cases of COVID-19 (a new type of coronavirus) with the trend and multivariate linear regression (MLR) has been investigated to propose a more accurate prediction model. For this propose, some important climate parameters, including daily average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, in addition to urban parameters such as population density, were considered, and their impacts on confirmed cases of COVID-19 were analyzed. The analysis was performed for three case studies in Italy, and the application of the proposed method has been investigated. The impacts of parameters have been considered with a delay time from one to nine days to find out the most suitable combination. The result of the analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model and the impact of climate parameters on the trend of confirmed cases. The research hypothesis approved by the MLR model and the present assessment method could be applied by considering several variables that exhibit the exact delay of them to new confirmed cases of COVID-19.

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