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Regrowing natural forests is a prominent natural climate solution, but accurate assessments of its potential are limited by uncertainty and variability around carbon accumulation rates. To assess why and where rates differ, we compiled 13,112 georeferenced measurements of carbon accumulation. Climate explained variation in rates better than land use history, so we combined field data with 66 environmental covariate layers to create a global, 1-km resolution map of potential aboveground carbon accumulation rates for the first 30 years of forest regrowth. Our results indicate that on average default forest regrowth rates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are underestimated by 32% and miss 8-fold variation within ecozones.Conversely, we conclude that previously reported maximum climate mitigation potential from natural forest regrowth is overestimated by 11% due to the use of overly high rates. Our results therefore provide a much needed and globally consistent method for assessing natural forest regrowth as a climate mitigation strategy. BackgroundTo constrain global warming, we must reduce emissions and capture excess carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere 1,2 . Restoring forest cover, defined here as the transition from < 25% tree cover to > 25% tree cover where forests historically occurred, is a promising option for additional carbon capture 3 and has been prioritized in many national and international goals 4,5 . It is deployable, scalable, and provides important biodiversity and ecosystem services 6 . Yet the magnitude and distribution of climate mitigation opportunity from restoring forest cover is poorly described, with large confidence intervals around estimates 2,3 . To evaluate the appropriateness of forest cover restoration for climate mitigation, compared to the multitude of other potential climate mitigation actions, countries, corporations, and multilateral entities need more accurate assessments of its potential 7 .Mitigation potential from restoring forest cover (reported here in terms of MgCO2 yr -1 ) is determined by the potential extent and location of new forest ("area of opportunity") and the rate at which those forests remove atmospheric CO2 (reported here in terms of MgC ha -1 yr -1 ). While there are now multiple estimates of area of opportunity based on diverse and often heavily debated criteria (e.g., references 3,8-11 ), we lack spatially explicit and globally comprehensive estimates of accumulation rates. This is especially true for natural forest regrowth, defined here as the recovery of forest cover on deforested lands through spontaneous regrowth after cessation of prior disturbance or land use. Many countries do not have nationally specific forest carbon accumulation rates and instead rely on default rates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 12,13 . Although these rates were recently updated 8,12 , they nonetheless represent coarse estimates based on continent and ecological zone, and do not account for finer scale variation in rates due to mor...

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& Key message There is no one-size-fits-all way to successfully implement forest landscape restoration (FLR). Complex socio-ecological systems present challenges and opportunities that can best be met with a systematic framework for designing, planning, steering, and monitoring FLR projects to meet diverse needs. Project cycle management is an iterative, adaptive, hierarchical framework with recurring consultations among stakeholders that can enhance the likelihood of FLR success.

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Forest loss and degradation is occurring at high rates but humankind is experiencing historical momentum that favors forest restoration. Approaches to restoration may follow various paradigms depending on stakeholder objectives, regional climate, or the degree of site degradation. The vast amount of land requiring restoration implies the need for spatial prioritization of restoration efforts according to cost-benefit analyses that include ecological risks. To design resistant and resilient ecosystems that can adapt to emerging circumstances, an adaptive management approach is needed. Global change, in particular, imparts a high degree of uncertainty about the future ecological and societal conditions of forest ecosystems to be restored, as well as their desired goods and services. We must also reconsider the suite of species incorporated into restoration with the aim of & Douglass F. Jacobs

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Highlights • Annual growth is 287 million m 3 in the forests of the Nordic and Baltic countries. • Growth can be increased by new tree species, tree breeding, high-productive management systems, fertilization and afforestation of abandoned agricultural land. • We predict a forest growth increment of 50-100% is possible at the stand scale. • 65% of annual growth is harvested today.