COVID-19 remains a major pandemic currently threatening all the countries of the world. In Nigeria, there were 1, 932 COVID-19 confirmed cases, 319 discharged cases and 58 deaths as of 30th April 2020. This paper, therefore, subjected the daily cumulative reported COVID-19 cases of these three variables to nine (9) curve estimation statistical models in simple, quadratic, cubic, and quartic forms. It further identified the best of the thirty-six (36) models and used the same for prediction and forecasting purposes. The data collected by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control for sixty-four (64) days, two (2) months and three (3), were daily monitored and eventually analyzed. We identified the best models to be Quartic Linear Regression Model with an autocorrelated error of order 1 (AR(1)); and found the Ordinary Least Squares, Cochrane Orcutt, Hildreth-Lu, and Prais-Winsten and Least Absolute Deviation (LAD) estimators useful to estimate the models' parameters. Consequently, we recommended the daily cumulative forecast values of the LAD estimator for May and June 2020 with a 99% confidence level. The forecast values are alarming, and so, the Nigerian Government needs to hastily review her activities and interventions towards COVID-19 to provide some tactical and robust structures and measures to avert these challenges.
The perception of climate change as a hazard will influence people's response to it. This study examined farmers' perception of temperature and rainfall between 1980 and 2009, and how age, sex, education and household size correlated with climate change perception. Simple random sampling with proportionate representation was used to determine sample size (411) from a sampling frame of 6000 farmers. Structured questionnaire was used for data collection and this was supplemented with interview of key informants. Temperature and rainfall records of Makurdi Meteorological Station were used as proxy for the study area. Data were analysed using regression and Pearson Product Moment Correlation. Results showed an increasing trend in temperature and rainfall amount, rainfall unpredictability, corroborated by majority of the farmers' perception. Bush burning, tree cutting and sinful behaviour were ranked as leading causes of climate change. Sex was significantly related to climate change perception and adaptation. Age, sex education and household size had significant impacts on the farmers' perception of climate change effect on social, biological and ecosystem functions. In conclusion, rural farmer s correctly perceived the changes in the climate. It was recommended that demographic attributes of farmers and farming communities should be incorporated into climate change awareness and adaptation policies.
This study analyses the trend of climatic factors (rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature and humidity) in Niger state, Nigeria, as one of the major states contributing to the total rice output of the country. This study also describes the trend in rice production of Niger state and determined the factors affecting the output of rice in the state. Secondary data from 1981-2010 were used. The analytical tools used were descriptive analysis, unit root and co-integration. The result of the research reveals that there is variation in the trend of the climatic factors and also variation in rice output of Niger state. The finding also shows that humidity and minimum temperature are the climatic factors that affect the rice production of Niger state, such that 1% increase in humidity caused 17% reduction in rice production in Niger state while 1% increase in minimum temperature caused 52.3% increase in rice production, therefore, humidity has a negative effect and minimum temperature has a positive effect. Therefore, the study recommends that research should be done to find the means of reducing the effect of climate change which will in turn improve the agricultural sector of the economy and rice production specifically. Also, breeders should help to develop rice varieties that can survive and produce well in adverse climatic conditions.
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