Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change on Rice Production in Niger State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study analyses the trend of climatic factors (rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature and humidity) in Niger state, Nigeria, as one of the major states contributing to the total rice output of the country. This study also describes the trend in rice production of Niger state and determined the factors affecting the output of rice in the state. Secondary data from 1981-2010 were used. The analytical tools used were descriptive analysis, unit root and co-integration. The result of the research reveals that there is variation in the trend of the climatic factors and also variation in rice output of Niger state. The finding also shows that humidity and minimum temperature are the climatic factors that affect the rice production of Niger state, such that 1% increase in humidity caused 17% reduction in rice production in Niger state while 1% increase in minimum temperature caused 52.3% increase in rice production, therefore, humidity has a negative effect and minimum temperature has a positive effect. Therefore, the study recommends that research should be done to find the means of reducing the effect of climate change which will in turn improve the agricultural sector of the economy and rice production specifically. Also, breeders should help to develop rice varieties that can survive and produce well in adverse climatic conditions.

Detecting Changes in Hydro-Climatic Variables during the Last Four Decades (1975-2014) on Downstream Kaduna River Catchment, Nigeria

“…In fact, most of the previous studies have focused on temporal and spatial trends [22], magnitude and frequency of rainfall and runoff occurrence for various return periods [23], response patterns of hydrological parameters [24], effects of climate change [14] [25], and flood analysis [27].…”

Analyzing Rice Production Issues in the Niger State Area of Nigeria’s Middle Belt

“…Furthermore, one of the most serious long-term challenges to achieving sustainable rice yield in the state is climate change. Previous studies have shown that humidity and minimum temperature are the climatic factors that affect rice production in the area, such that 1% increase in humidity resulted in a 17% reduction in rice production in Niger state [9]. The gravity of the issues herein analysed reinforces the need for a mix-scale analysis anchored in descriptive statistics and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) mapping of rice yield trends essential in the design of a crop index.…”

“…This represents a severe drop in Niger state's rice yield. Following that, the rice yield once again moved up slowly by 407,200 tons, while the slow surge held steady till 2009 at 532,010 tons on a low pace, it still could not crack the 1997 high production levels [9]. The drop-off in production in the other years did not operate in a vacuum.…”

Climate Change and Rice Production: A Case Study in Ekiti State, Niger

“…Such include, Auff hammer (2011), Ayinde et al (2013), Besir and Ceylan (2013), Ugwu (2013) and Scharticles (2014) among others. Auff hammer, (2011) used a combination of statistical and simulation methods to analyse impact of the changing monsoon rainfall pattern on rice production in Asia.…”

“…In the same vein, Ayinde et al (2013) evaluated the effects of climate change on rice production in Niger State, Nigeria using analytical tools of descriptive analysis, unit root and co-integration. The result reveals humidity and minimum temperature as the most critical climatic factors for rice cultivation in the area.…”