Detecting Changes in Hydro-Climatic Variables during the Last Four Decades (1975-2014) on Downstream Kaduna River Catchment, Nigeria

Okafor, Gloria C.; Jimoh, O. D.; Larbi, K. Isaac

doi:10.4236/acs.2017.72012

Cited by 38 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(31 reference statements)

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“…Time series data were plotted to observe trends in data distribution and possibly, irregularities. Thereafter, the methods to determine serial correlation in the data series were observed [OKAFOR et al 2017]. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator were employed to detect monotonic changes over time in the series.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator were employed to detect monotonic changes over time in the series. MK test have been used in earlier studies to detect trend in hydro-climatic datasets [HU 2014;OKAFOR et al 2017]. The Mann-Kendall statistic (S mk ) [KENDALL 1975;MANN 1945], theoretical calculation is shown in Equation (1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of the impact of climate change on the freshwater availability of Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

Okafor

Ogbu

2018

Journal of Water and Land Development

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Changes in runoff trends have caused severe water shortages and ecological problems in agriculture and human well-being in Nigeria. Understanding the long-term (inter-annual to decadal) variations of water availability in river basins is paramount for water resources management and climate change adaptation. Climate change in Northern Nigeria could lead to change of the hydrological cycle and water availability. Moreover, the linkage between climatic changes and streamflow fluctuations is poorly documented in this area. Therefore, this study examined temporal trends in rainfall, temperature and runoff records of Kaduna River basin. Using appropriate statistical tools and participatory survey, trends in streamflow and their linkages with the climate indices were explored to determine their amplifying impacts on water availability and impacts on livelihoods downstream the basin. Analysis indicate variable rainfall trend with significant wet and dry periods. Unlike rainfall, temperature showed annual and seasonal scale statistically increasing trend. Runoff exhibit increasing tendency but only statistically significant on annual scale as investigated with Mann-Kendall trend test. Sen's estimator values stood in agreement with Mann-Kendall test for all variables. Kendall tau and partial correlation results revealed the influence of climatic variables on runoff. Based on the survey, some of the hydrological implications and current water stress conditions of these fluctuations for the downstream inhabitants were itemized. With increasing risk of climate change and demand for water, we therefore recommend developing adaptive measures in seasonal regime of water availability and future work on modelling of the diverse hydrological characteristics of the entire basin.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the freshwater availability of Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

Okafor

Ogbu

2018

Journal of Water and Land Development

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“…A non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator were used for trend detection and quantification in the extremes climate indices that were computed using the MAKESENS software. The MK test (Equations (2)-(5)), a widely used statistical analysis for trend detection in extreme climate indices and hydro-climate analysis [30,32] assumes a null hypothesis (H o ) that there is no trend which is tested against the alternative hypothesis (H 1 ) of the presence of a trend [33].…”

Section: Trend Analysis Of Rainfall and Temperature Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Extremes in the Vea Catchment, Ghana

Larbi

Hountondji

Annor

et al. 2018

Climate

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This study examined the trends in annual rainfall and temperature extremes over the Vea catchment for the period 1985–2016, using quality-controlled stations and a high resolution (5 km) Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data. The CHIRPS gridded precipitation data’s ability in reproducing the climatology of the catchment was evaluated. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices were computed using a RClimdex package by considering seventeen (17) climate change indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI). Trend detection and quantification in the rainfall (frequency and intensity) and temperature extreme indices were analyzed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results show a very high seasonal correlation coefficient (r = 0.99), Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (0.98) and percentage bias (4.4% and −8.1%) between the stations and the gridded data. An investigation of dry and wet years using Standardized Anomaly Index shows 45.5% frequency of drier than normal periods compared to 54.5% wetter than normal periods in the catchment with 1999 and 2003 been extremely wet years while the year 1990 and 2013 were extremely dry. The intensity and magnitude of extreme rainfall indices show a decreasing trend for more than 78% of the rainfall locations while positive trends were observed in the frequency of extreme rainfall indices (R10mm, R20mm, and CDD) with the exception of consecutive wet days (CWD) that shows a decreasing trend. A general warming trend over the catchment was observed through the increase in the annual number of warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p) and warm spells (WSDI). The spatial distribution analysis shows a high frequency and intensity of extremes rainfall indices in the south of the catchment compared to the middle and northern of part of the catchment, while temperature extremes were uniformly distributed over the catchment.

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“…Increase in runoff patterns in recent years has been documented by [39] [40]. This leads to flash flood and is observed as a major threat to agriculture and livelihood [41].…”

Section: Observed Climate Variability and Changing Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Households Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability Induced Water Stress on Downstream Kaduna River Basin

Okafor¹,

Sadiku²,

Okhimamhe³

et al. 2017

AJCC

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Water stress is one of the risks emanating from worsening climatic variations. It poses serious threats on vulnerable continents, people and livelihoods globally. However, little information is available on how the specific climate threat is impacting people's livelihoods and water resources on different temporal and spatial scales in Nigeria basins. This study aimed at investigating household vulnerability and adaptation to water stress induced by climate variability on a downstream Kaduna River basin with the goal of supporting/facilitating climate change adaptation. The research analyzed hydro-climatic data and employed vulnerability-based framework consistent with stakeholders' participatory approach, within the context of current climate conditions experienced, and/or water stress conditions already affecting household livelihoods in six communities at three study sites; Shiroro, Gbako and Lavun, and adaptive strategies engaged to deal with water stress. Findings revealed that households have been exposed and experienced changes in water availability through variations in rainfall, temperature and runoff. Consequently, these changes have impacted on food production and livelihoods. Households have individually and collectively employed adaptation techniques which are reactive, short-term indigenous coping strategies usually adopted during periods of stress to minimize water-related vulnerabilities. The study demonstrated how an understanding of the local household vulnerabilities will enable the recognition of early indicators of water stress in addition to the occurrence of extreme events. Overall, households' vulnerability decreased from one village to another due to differences in sensitivity to stress, access to resources and local institutional capacity. Resilience of households can be increased through early warning system during flood

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Detecting Changes in Hydro-Climatic Variables during the Last Four Decades (1975-2014) on Downstream Kaduna River Catchment, Nigeria

Cited by 38 publications

References 32 publications

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the freshwater availability of Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the freshwater availability of Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

Spatio-Temporal Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Extremes in the Vea Catchment, Ghana

Households Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability Induced Water Stress on Downstream Kaduna River Basin

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